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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to Below Trend Growth in Q4
Activity index declines to -0.35 in December...
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The MBA Mortgage Loan Index decreased 1.2% in the January 17 week...
U.S. Energy Prices Decline Again
Retail gasoline prices fell to $2.54 per gallon (+12.7% y/y) in the week ended January 20...
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Recovers
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current general activity at the company level rebounded to 23.5 during January...
by Tom Moeller April 30, 2012
Consumers adopted a more conservative approach
to their income last month. Personal income increased 0.4% (3.2%
y/y) during March after a 0.3% February increase, last month reported as
0.2%. Last month's increase reflected a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y) in wages and
salaries after three months of 0.4% increase. Rental income surged 0.9%
(11.8% y/y) as home renting remained strong relative to ownership.
Proprietors' income increased 0.6% (3.3% y/y). Lower interest rates
continued to weigh on interest income which rose 0.3% for the third
straight month, but it fell 2.3% y/y. Conversely, dividend income jumped
0.7% (6.2% y/y) with strong corporate profitability.
Individuals enabled the income gain to stabilize the earlier draw-down of savings. The personal savings rate ticked up to 3.8% from an unrevised 3.7% during February. Nevertheless, it remained below the 4.9% level twelve months ago and at a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
Growth in personal consumption expenditures eased to just 0.1% following a 0.5% February increase, revised from 0.8%. Last month's weakness reflected a 2.2% decline (+13.1% y/y) in motor vehicle purchases which was a breather after several months of strong gain. Conversely, furniture expenditures rose a strong 1.0% (6.8% y/y) and clothing spending increased 0.5% (5.9% y/y). Higher gasoline prices increased purchases by 3.6% but less driving & more fuel efficient vehicles limited the y/y gain to 3.5%. Purchases fell 2.7% y/y when adjusted for higher prices. Spending on services inched up 0.1% (3.3% y/y), the y/y gain boosted by 7.2% y/y growth in recreation and a 6.3% annual rise in food services & accommodations as they traveled more.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.2% an easier last month (2.1% y/y). The increase reflected a 1.7% rise (6.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 5.7% February increase. The core PCE price index increased 0.2% and the y/y increase of 2.0% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Personal Income & Outlays(%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 3.7 | -4.3 |
| Wages & Salaries | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | -4.3 |
| Disposable Personal Income |
0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | -2.1 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures |
0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 3.8 | -1.7 |
| Personal Saving Rate | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.9 (Mar.'11) |
4.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Real Disposable Income |
0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -2.3 |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures |
0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | -1.9 |
