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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller April 24, 2012
The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence during April
slipped to 69.2 from 69.5 last month, initially reported as 70.2.
Nevertheless, the latest two figures were the highest since February 2011
and were up nearly three-quarters from the October low. The April number
fell slightly short of Consensus estimates for 70.0. During the last ten
years there was been a 48% correlation between the level of confidence and
the three-month change in real PCE.
The slip in overall confidence owed to a lower expectations component which edged down m/m to 81.1, although it was nearly its highest level in a year. The percentage expecting business conditions to improve fell to 18.8%. Expectations for more jobs slipped m/m but remained sharply higher than the September low. Down m/m, income expectations also have improved sharply versus the recession low.
The present situation reading improved to 51.4 from a downwardly-revised March level. Fewer respondents saw jobs as being plentiful and there also was a decline in the "jobs hard to get" reading. An improved 15.3% of respondents thought business conditions were good and the percentage of respondents indicating that conditions were bad was 33.5% versus 51.0% at the recession peak.
Expectations for inflation in the next twelve months fell back m/m to 5.8% from 6.2% in March. The percentage of people looking for stock prices to rise increased to 35.7% this month, the most optimistic since February of last year, while the percent who are bearish fell to 29.1%, the least negative since February 2011. The percentage expecting higher interest rates rose to 48.8%
Headline figures on consumer confidence are carried in Haver's USECON database. The Conference Board's detailed data are found in Haver's CBDB database, and the consensus expectations figure is from Actions Economics, as tabulated in the AS1REPNA database.
Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y % | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence Index | 69.2 | 69.5 | 71.6 | 4.8 | 58.1 | 54.5 | 45.2 |
Present Situation | 51.4 | 49.9 | 46.4 | 27.9 | 36.2 | 25.7 | 24.0 |
Expectations | 81.1 | 82.5 | 88.4 | -2.5 | 72.8 | 73.7 | 59.3 |