Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller April 19, 2012
Improvement in the labor market has slowed.
That's the message from the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance slipped just 2,000 to 386,000 from an upwardly revised 388,000
during the prior week, earlier reported as 380,000. Earlier figures also
were revised. The latest number compared to Consensus expectations for 370,000
claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 374,750,
its highest since the end of January.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey period for March payroll employment and it rose 22,000 (6.0%) from the February period. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 3.297M during the week of April 7. The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.6% for the fourth straight week, the lowest since August 2008. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of March 31, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients fell to 6.765M (-18.5% y/y).
By state, the insured unemployment rate varied greatly with Virginia (1.4%), Texas (1.6%), Florida (1.8%), Louisiana (1.8%), Arizona (2.1%), Tennessee (2.0%), and Indiana (2.1%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were rates in New York (3.2%), Massachusetts (3.4%), Michigan (3.4%), Connecticut (3.6%), California (3.8% ), New Jersey (3.8%), and Pennsylvania (3.8%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus estimates are in AS1REPNA.
Who Is The Most Unemployed? Factors Affecting Joblessness from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/14/12 | 04/07/12 | 03/31/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 386 | 388 | 362 | -6.8 | 409 | 459 | 574 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 3,297 | 3,271 | -11.8 | 3,745 | 4,544 | 5,807 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 (4/11) |
3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 6.765M | -18.5 | 7.750M | 9.850M | 9.163M |