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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 17, 2012
There's been no forward momentum recently in U.S. production activity.
Industrial production was unchanged last month (3.8% y/y) following an unrevised
no-change during February. The latest figure again disappointed Consensus
expectations for a 0.3% increase according to Action Economics. Factory
sector output fell 0.2% (+4.9% y/y) following strength during the prior
three months. Utility output recovered 1.5% (-4.6% y/y) while mining
ticked up 0.3% (4.2% y/y).
Business equipment production remained firm relative to other sectors last month. Its modest 0.2% rise followed several strong months and its 9.6% y/y increase was several times the gains in most other sectors. Indeed, consumer goods output fell 0.2% (+2.2% y/y) in March. The drop reflected a 0.4% decline (+12.6% y/y) in autos, a 2.3% falloff (-0.6% y/y) in appliances and a 2.3% drop (-0.8% y/y) in clothing. Showing strength were computers, audio & video equipment where output rose 1.1% (7.4% y/y). Excluding both the high-tech and auto sectors, output dipped 0.1% (+3.4% y/y) following no-change in February.
Capacity utilization slipped to 78.6% last month. In manufacturing alone utilization fell to 77.8% but remained up from the recession low of 64.4%. Overall capacity is estimated to have risen 1.1% y/y following a 0.2% dip last year and a 2.2% decline during 2010. In the factory sector, capacity rose 0.7% y/y and excluding the high-tech industries, it increased 0.6%.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
The World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund can be found here.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 5.4 | -11.4 |
Manufacturing | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 5.7 | -13.8 |
Consumer Goods | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | -6.9 |
Business Equipment | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 8.3 | -18.2 |
Construction Supplies | -1.4 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.8 | -22.9 |
Materials | 0.2 | -0.9 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 8.4 | -11.5 |
Utilities | 1.5 | 0.1 | -1.9 | -4.6 | -0.3 | 3.6 | -2.5 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.6 | 78.7 | 78.7 | 76.5 | 76.8 | 73.7 | 68.5 |
Manufacturing | 77.8 | 78.0 | 77.5 | 74.7 | 75.0 | 71.3 | 65.5 |