Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
- UK: Public Finance (Apr), CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
- Mexico: Construction (Mar), SemiMonthly CPI (May)
- Brazil: IPCA-15 (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 13, 2012
Consumer prices rose a moderate and expected 0.3% last month, down from February's unrevised 0.4% gain. The increase left the y/y increase of 2.6% down from its peak of 3.9% six months ago. Prices less food and energy increased 0.2%, also as-expected. However, the rise pulled the y/y rate of gain to 2.3% which equaled its highest since September 2008.
Energy prices increased a moderated 0.9% (4.5% y/y) as gasoline prices increased 1.7% (9.0% y/y). Fuel oil costs rose a not seasonally adjusted 1.8% (4.3% y/y) but gas & electricity prices fell again by 0.4% (-1.8% y/y).
Food & beverage prices in March edged up again by 0.1% (3.2% y/y) as strength continued in prices of meats (5.3% y/y). Elsewhere, gains moderated with cereals & bakery products increasing 4.5% y/y and fruits & vegetables falling 3.7% y/y.
For goods alone, prices less food & energy have been firming. They rose 0.2% last month and the 12-month increase of 2.1% was up from a 0.3% decline late in 2010. Apparel prices rose 0.5% and the 4.9% y/y gain was up versus the 0.5% decline in 2010. Furniture & operations costs fell 0.2% (1.1% y/y) after two years when prices fell. Motor vehicle prices increased 0.6% (2.1% y/y).
The increase in core service prices of 0.2% (2.3% y/y) reflected a 0.2% rise (2.1% y/y) in shelter costs (32% of the CPI). Owners equivalent rent of primary residences also rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y). The y/y increase compares to a low of -0.3% in early 2010. Education costs rose for the fourth straight month by 0.3% (4.4% y/y) and medical care service prices rose a quickened 0.3% (3.5% y/y). Public transportation prices increased 0.5% (-0.3% y/y) after four months of decline. Recreation services costs rose 0.2% (1.2% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in consumption patterns, rose a firmer 0.6% last month (2.4% y/y). Chained prices less food & energy rose 0.4% and by 2.1% y/y.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
Some Reflections on the Crisis and the Policy Response is today's speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it can be found here.
Consumer Price Index (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
Food & Beverages | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
Energy | 0.9 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 15.2 | 9.6 | -18.2 |
Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | -0.5 |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.5 |