Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Robert Brusca April 11, 2012
Industrial production is slowing on a broad front across the Euro-Area. In February five of seven bellwether
Euro-Area or EU nations had declines in their production indices over three-months; the best of their performance
is flat. For the quarter to date only Spain with well-known volatile moves is stronger on balance.
The chart tells a clear story of steady decline. The year-over-year growth rate for industrial output for Germany, France, and Spain is clearly on a downward path. Only Germany with a Yr/Yr increase of 0.9% is up on the year. The same is true for the broader sample of countries in the table.
EMU is clearly on a weakening trend. There is no evidence that it has abated and at the same time there are new concerns about debt problems in the Euro-Area.
The silver lining in this ugly cloud is that the 3-month annualized rates of growth are generally smaller than the six-month rates. That says that the deterioration while still in place is not accelerating and actually has tapered off a bit. But it is small grounds for hope. There is literally no source of stimulus in the Euro-Area. The ECB is running an accommodative policy aimed at assisting the indebted. Fiscal austerity is the rule of the day across the Zone. There is no stimulus and momentum, as you can see is clearly negative. Meanwhile, new strains are emerging.
Selected Euro-Area Countries and UK IP in MFG | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mo/Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Feb'12 | |||
MFG Only | Feb'12 | Jan'12 | Dec'11 | Feb'12 | Feb'12 | Feb'12 | r:2-Date |
Germany: MFG | -0.3% | 1.0% | -1.9% | -4.8% | -6.7% | 0.9% | -2.7% |
France | 0.3% | 0.2% | -1.5% | -3.8% | -3.8% | -1.9% | -1.3% |
Spain | -3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | -7.6% | -6.8% | 6.3% |
Ireland | -3.2% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 0.0% | -19.9% | -3.1% | -0.5% |
Greece | -2.7% | 3.5% | -2.3% | -6.2% | -8.6% | -8.0% | 0.0% |
Porttugal | 0.8% | 0.1% | -1.4% | -1.8% | -16.5% | -6.8% | 0.0% |
UK: MFG | -1.0% | -0.3% | 1.2% | -0.8% | -2.5% | -1.5% | -0.5% |
Mo/Mo are simple percent changes others are at SAARs; IP X-construction unless noted |