Recent Updates
- Belgium: BNB Business Survey (Jun)
- UAE: Central Bank Balance SHeet, Foreign Assets, Monetary Aggregates, Monetary Base (May)
- US: FRB Chicago National Activity Index (May)
- Germany: Gross Wages (Q1), Ifo Business Climate (Jun), Tax Receipts (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Existing Home Sales and Prices Increase
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of
existing homes rose 2.5% (-1.1% y/y) during May...
EMU Sector Bifurcation Continues
Services are continuing to move higher boosting the composite private sector index. But manufacturing remains weak...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Remain Unchanged
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic
Indicators held steady (2.5% y/y) during May following a 0.1% April rise,
revised from 0.2%...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Weakens
Considerably
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its
General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index declined to 0.3 in June after
May's improvement to 16.6...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Shrinks; Exports Rise and
Imports Fall
The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to $130.4 billion
during Q1'19 from $143.9 billion during Q4'18...
by Robert Brusca April 11, 2012
Industrial production is slowing on a broad front across the Euro-Area. In February five of seven bellwether
Euro-Area or EU nations had declines in their production indices over three-months; the best of their performance
is flat. For the quarter to date only Spain with well-known volatile moves is stronger on balance.
The chart tells a clear story of steady decline. The year-over-year growth rate for industrial output for Germany, France, and Spain is clearly on a downward path. Only Germany with a Yr/Yr increase of 0.9% is up on the year. The same is true for the broader sample of countries in the table.
EMU is clearly on a weakening trend. There is no evidence that it has abated and at the same time there are new concerns about debt problems in the Euro-Area.
The silver lining in this ugly cloud is that the 3-month annualized rates of growth are generally smaller than the six-month rates. That says that the deterioration while still in place is not accelerating and actually has tapered off a bit. But it is small grounds for hope. There is literally no source of stimulus in the Euro-Area. The ECB is running an accommodative policy aimed at assisting the indebted. Fiscal austerity is the rule of the day across the Zone. There is no stimulus and momentum, as you can see is clearly negative. Meanwhile, new strains are emerging.
| Selected Euro-Area Countries and UK IP in MFG | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo/Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Feb'12 | |||
| MFG Only | Feb'12 | Jan'12 | Dec'11 | Feb'12 | Feb'12 | Feb'12 | r:2-Date |
| Germany: MFG | -0.3% | 1.0% | -1.9% | -4.8% | -6.7% | 0.9% | -2.7% |
| France | 0.3% | 0.2% | -1.5% | -3.8% | -3.8% | -1.9% | -1.3% |
| Spain | -3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | -7.6% | -6.8% | 6.3% |
| Ireland | -3.2% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 0.0% | -19.9% | -3.1% | -0.5% |
| Greece | -2.7% | 3.5% | -2.3% | -6.2% | -8.6% | -8.0% | 0.0% |
| Porttugal | 0.8% | 0.1% | -1.4% | -1.8% | -16.5% | -6.8% | 0.0% |
| UK: MFG | -1.0% | -0.3% | 1.2% | -0.8% | -2.5% | -1.5% | -0.5% |
| Mo/Mo are simple percent changes others are at SAARs; IP X-construction unless noted | |||||||
