Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Louise Curley April 10, 2012
The March HSBC PMI for manufacturing in China was 48.3, below the 50 mark, suggesting a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. At the same time, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported their manufacturing PMI for March at 53.1 suggesting an expansion of manufacturing activity. The two PMIs have frequently differed in the past, both in magnitude and direction, as can be seen in the first chart. To see which one might be the better indicator we correlated the percentage change in each PMI with the percentage change in industrial production, and calculated the R2 , the determination ratio, which is a measure of how much of the variation in industrial production is explained by the variation in the PMI. The correlations are shown in the second and third charts. By this measure, the HSBC PMI is the better indicator, accounting for 56% of the variation in industrial production as opposed to the Chinese PMI that accounts for 39% of the variation in industrial production.
The trade data released today are more suggestive of a slowdown than an expansion. Total exports in March were 8.84% above a year ago, compared with year over year increases of 13% at the end of last year. Exports to the EU, China's best customer, have decelerated sharply and in March were 3.11% below March of a year ago. The year to year changes in China's goods exports are shown in the fourth chart.
China: Exports of Goods (Y/Y %Change) | Mar'12 | Feb'12 | Jan'12 | Dec'11 | Nov'11 | Oct'11 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 8.84. | 18.33 | -0.53 | 13.34 | 13.79 | 15.54 |
To US | 14.03 | 22.59 | 5.49 | 11.93 | 16.97 | 13.87 |
To EU | -3.11 | 2.25 | -3.21 | 7.21 | 4.96 | 7.54 |