Recent Updates
- US: Philadelphia Fed State Coincidence Indexes (Apr)
- US: Advance Durable Goods (Apr)
- Maldives: Depository Corporations Survey (Apr)
- Mexico: GDP (Q1), Economic Activity (Mar), Trade (Apr)
- Bosnia: PPI (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Louise Curley April 9, 2012
Japanese statistical releases are sending out mixed signals. The Real Synthetic Consumption Indicator, which combines demand side data with supply side data declined in February as a consequence of declines in the indexes of consumption of durable and semi durable goods that outweighed the slight improvements in the indexes of consumption of nondurables and services. The index for durable goods was 180.3 in February, compared with 185.7 in January. The comparable figures for semi durables were 94.4 and 101.6; for nondurables, 93.7 and 93.6; and for services, 102.8 and 101.8. The first chart show the paths of the Real Synthetic Indicator and its components.
In March, the results of the Economy Watchers' Survey showed an improvement in the appraisal of current conditions from 45.9 in February to 51.8 but a drop in the appraisal of future conditions from 50.1 to 49.7, as can be seen in the second chart. Some of the economy watchers concern for the future may have been prompted by the strengthening of the yen in the last month. Earlier this year the yen had weakened as a result of government intervention and the Bank of Japan's easier monetary policy.
Today, the release of balance of payments data showing a significant improvement in the current account from a record deficit of 437.3 billion yen in January to a surplus of 1,177.8 billion yen in February, as shown in the third chart. While the turn around is good to Japan's exporters, it has stimulated financial flows into the country and once again is putting upward pressure on the yen. The immediate result was a rise in the yen from 82.42 to 81.32 today, as can be see in the last chart
Mar'12 | Feb'12 | Jan'12 | Dec'11 | Nov'11 | Oct'11 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Synthetic Consumption (2005=100) | -- | 105.0 | 105.2 | 104.4 | 104.0 | 104.2 |
Durable | -- | 180.3 | 185.7 | 161.2 | 157.0 | 163.0 |
Semi Durable | -- | 94.4 | 101.6 | 100.2 | 100.7 | 101.8 |
Nondurable | -- | 93.7 | 93.6 | 93.4 | 93.5 | 93.6 |
Services | -- | 102.8 | 101.8 | 103.1 | 102.4 | 102.2 |
Economy Watchers' Survey | ||||||
Diffusion Index for Current Conditions | 51.8 | 45.9 | 44.1 | 47.0 | 45.0 | 45.9 |
Diffusion Index for Future Conditions | 49.7 | 50.1 | 47.1 | 44.4 | 44.7 | 45.9 |