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Economy in Brief

ADP Report Estimates Payrolls Rise 209,000
by Tom Moeller  April 4, 2012

Employment growth is continuing at a moderate rate. That's indicated by the 209,000 increase in March private-sector payrolls reported by the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers. The increase followed a 230,000 February gain and a 182,000 January rise, last month shown as 216,000 and 173,000, respectively. The latest increase roughly matched Consensus expectations for a 205,000 gain. It left three-month growth at 2.3% (AR).

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report March payroll employment on Friday. Economists expect a 222,000 worker increase in private sector jobs. By comparison, the February increase of 230,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 233,000 gain in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP figure and the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiles its estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

The service sector again led job growth. Its 164,000 worker gain (1.8% y/y) was accompanied by a 45,000 increase (1.3% y/y) in goods-producing payrolls. Factory sector jobs rose 23,000 (0.9% y/y). Overall, small-sized payrolls again showed the greatest improvement with a 100,000 (1.9% y/y) gain. Medium-sized payrolls followed with an 87,000 (2.0% y/y) increase while large payrolls grew 22,000 (0.6% y/y). Construction employment added 13,000 and the number of financial activities jobs rose a lessened 8,000.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP National Employment Report Mar Feb Jan Y/Y 2011 2010 2009
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) 209 230 182 1.7% 1.4% -1.0% -4.1%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 100 113 97 1.9 1.4 -0.9 -4.1
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 87 95 78 2.0 1.8 -0.9 -5.7
 Large Payroll (>500) 22 22 7 0.6 0.4 -1.8 -5.6
Goods Producing 45 47 26 1.3 0.8 -4.8 -12.4
  Manufacturing 23 24 18 0.9 1.3 -3.2 -11.4
Service Producing 164 183 156 1.8 1.5 -0.2 -3.2
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