- US: Agricultural Prices (Oct), Consumer Sentiment (Oct-final), Employment Cost Index (Q3), Personal Income (Sep)
- Ireland: Money Supply (Sep), Credit Measures (Sep)
- Spain: Capacity Utilization (Q4), BOP (Aug), Central Govt Debt (Sep), Consumer Confidence (Oct)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Oct-final)
- US: Chicago PMI, Milwaukee PMI (Oct)
- US: Underlying NIPA Tables (Q3-Adv), Key Source Data (Q3)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Strengthens
The employment cost index for private industry workers jumped 0.7% (2.3% y/y) in Q3'14, following an unrevised 0.8% Q2 rise...
Euro Area Joblessness Hangs High as Other Activity Gauges Wither
October 31 has turned out to be a very bad data day for the European Union as well as for the euro area...
U.S. GDP Growth in Q3 Is Stronger Than Expected
GDP grew 3.5% last quarter (2.3% y/y) following an unrevised 4.6% rise...
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Tick Higher
Initial claims for unemployment insurance during the week ended October 25 rose to 287,000 (-17.1% y/y) from 284,000...
EU Indices Head Higher in October
The EU overall sentiment index rose to a level of 104 in October from 103.5 in September...
FOMC Ends QE As Economy Improves & Inflation Remains Low
The Fed indicated that labor market improvement, moderate growth in household spending and positive business investment growth allowed for ending QE...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption