- China: Manufacturing and NonManufacturing PMI (Apr); Korea: International Trade Press (Apr)
- US: Retail Trade Revisions, Consumer Sentiment (Apr-Final), Personal Income (Mar), Employment Cost Index (Q1)
- US: Underlying NIPA Tables, Full Key Source Data (Q1-Adv)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Raw Material & Ind Product Prices (Mar)
- *Hong Kong CPI Rebased to 2014-2015=100 (Mar)*
- Turkey: Foreign Trade, Money Supply, BRSA Balance Sheet, Central
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Remains Firm
The employment cost index for civilian workers increased 0.6% (1.9% y/y) during Q1'16...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Disappoints & Trends Sideways
Chicago purchasing managers reported that their Business Barometer Index declined to 50.4 this month...
Euro Area Unemployment Drops to 4.5-Year Low
EMU unemployment fell to 10.2% in March after being stuck at 10.4% for three consecutive months...
U.S. GDP Grows 0.5% in Q1'16
Growth in the U.S. economy was barely positive last quarter...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 257,000 during the week ended April 23...
EU and Euro Area Show Some Improvement in April
The EU Commission Indices for the EU and EMU showed gains in April...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption