- Japan: **GDP reclassified to SNA 2008**
- US: Quarterly Services Survey (Q3)
- Canada: Building Permits, New Housing Prices (Oct), Housing Starts (Nov)
- Russia: CPI (Nov); Hungary: CPI, Fuel Prices (Nov), Foreign Trade (Oct); Croatia: Foreign Trade (Sep), PPI (Nov); Bulgaria: Industrial Turnover (Oct); Lithuania: CPI (Nov); Latvia: CPI (Nov); Poland: Supervisory Liqudity Measures (Oct); Bosnia: Monetary Agg, Dep & Loans, Fgn Reserves, Bal Sheet (Oct); Ukraine: CPI (Nov), PPI (Nov), Industrial
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Ease as Rates Rise Further
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index declined 0.7% last week (-2.4% y/y)...
U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Slackens
Consumer credit outstanding increased $16.0 during October (6.6% y/y)...
German IP Rises - A Mixed to Weak View from the Rest of Europe
Germany's industrial production has come through another period of relative turbulence...
U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens as Imports Surge
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services increased to $42.6 billion during October from $36.2 billion in September...
U.S. Energy Product Prices Strengthen
Regular gasoline prices increased to $2.21 per gallon (7.5% y/y) last week...
U.S. Productivity Rose 3.1% in Q3
Growth in nonfarm output per hour during Q3'16 was unrevised at 3.1% (SAAR, 0.0% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption