- France: Registered Unemployment & Vacancies (Sep)
- US: New York Fed Coincident Indexes (Sep)
- US: New Residential Sales (Sep)
- Moldova: Monetary Statistics: Average Interest Rates
- Russia: Cross Border Remittances (Aug); Armenia: Monetary Aggregates (Sep); Kazakhstan: Wages (Sep-Prelim)
- Italy: Retail Trade (Aug), Contractual Wages (Sep), Consumer Survey (Oct)
- Finland: Import & Export Prices, PPI, Wholesale Prices,
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
German Economic Climate Makes a Small Rebound for November
Germany's consumer climate for November, measured by the survey group GfK, rose for the first time in two months...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index Signals Continued Growth
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.8% (6.3% y/y) last month following no change in August...
U.S. FHFA Home Price Inflation Decelerates
The FHFA U.S. House Price Index improved 0.5% during August following a 0.2% July gain...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Declines to 2000 Low
The job market remains on a firm footing...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Recovers
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for September rebounded to 0.47 from a little-revised -0.25 in August...
EMU Flash PMIs Show Life But Not Much Pulse
European markets reacted positively overnight to the release of the PMI data by Markit...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption