- Markit PMI: Manufacturing Survey - China (Sep)
- Japan: Index of Living Expenditures, Labor Force Survey, Employment Referral Statistics, Trading Volume of Bonds with Options, Auto Production and Exports by Manufacturer, Construction Orders and Housing Starts (Aug), Survey of Mass Merchandise Specialty Retailers, Wholesale & Retail Trade, Current Survey of Production, Industrial Production, Petroleum Stats (Aug-Prelim), IP Forecast (Oct)
- UK: GFK Consumer Confidence (Sep)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
NABE Predicts Improving Economic Growth
Expectations for 3.0% real GDP growth in 2015 were little-changed but this year's advance was lessened to 2.1%...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline
Pending sales of single-family home sales declined 1.0% last month (-2.2% y/y) following a 3.2% July increase...
Spain's Retail Sales Rise but Have Long Road to Recovery Ahead
Spain's real retail sales have slipped enormously since their peak back in 2007...
U.S. GDP Growth is Strengthened
The third GDP estimate for Q2'14 indicated growth of 4.6% (AR), revised up from 4.2%....
German Confidence to Fall; Economic Expectations Already Have Plunged
The German consumer climate reading has fallen for the second consecutive month, according to the GfK survey...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Retreat With Fewer Aircraft Bookings
New orders for durable goods fell back 18.2% during August (+8.9% y/y) following a 22.5% July surge...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption