- China: GDP (Q4)
- China: NCI Economic Activity Index (Jan)
- Spain: Import & Export Prices, International Trade Detail (Nov), Motor Vehicle Registrations (Dec)
- Canada: CPI (Dec), Retail Trade (Nov)
- Ireland: Wholesale and Producer Prices (Dec)
- Mexico: Employment (Dec)
- Estonia: PPI, Import & Export Prices (Dec), Agricultural Output Prices, Building Permits (Q4); Hungary: Wages, Employment (Nov);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
German PPI Takes Wing...Even Excluding Energy
Germany's PPI inflation excluding energy is pushing relentlessly higher...
U.S. Housing Starts Reach 2007 High
The housing market exhibited firm growth in 2016...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Fall Sharply
Initial unemployment insurance filings declined to 234,000 during the week ended January 14 from 249,000 in the prior week...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Business Outlook Survey Improves
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.6 during January from December's 19.7...
EMU Current Account Surplus Trumps the Past...All of It
The euro area has set a new record high current account surplus at 36.1 billion euros in November...
U.S. CPI Registers Faster Growth in 2016
The Consumer Price Index during all of 2016 increased 2.1% from December-to-December...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption