- US: Autodata Vehicle Sales (Nov), Construction (Oct)
- US: Texas Service Outlook Survey (Nov)
- US: ISM Manufacturing (Nov)
- US: Personal Consumption Expenditures by State (1997-2014 Revised)
- Canada: GDP (Q3)
- Markit PMI: Manufacturing Survey - India, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, UK, Germany, France, US, Canada, Mexico, Emerging and Developed Markets, JP Morgan Global (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Construction Activity Continues to Strengthen
The value of construction put-in-place increased 1.0% during October following an unrevised 0.6% September increase...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Decline; Crude Oil Nudges Up
Gasoline prices at the pump declined last week to $2.06 per gallon, down 3 cents from the prior week...
Globally Manufacturing PMIs Are Weak
November was a difficult month for global manufacturing...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Improve
The NAR reported that pending sales of single-family homes gained 0.2% during October (2.1% y/y)...
Chicago Business Barometer Reverses Earlier Improvement; Suggests Economic Contraction
The Chicago Business Barometer in November plummeted 7.5 points to 48.7 and fully reversed its October rise...
Dallas Fed Factory Sector Activity Improves; Employment Figures Strengthen
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its November Composite index of factory sector activity increased to -4.9 from -12.7...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption