- Philippines: GDP (Q1); Singapore: Household Balance Sheet (Q1)
- Estonia: Government Finance (Apr)
- Australia: Capital Expenditures (Q1); New Zealand: International Reserves (Apr)
- Japan: Wholesale & Retail Trade (Apr-Prelim), International Trade, Input Output Prices (Apr)
- UK: CBI Services Sector Survey (Q2)
- US: Housing Starts by State (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline Prices Inch Higher; Crude Oil Slips
Gasoline prices rose to an average $2.77 per gallon at the pump (-24.5% y/y) last week from 2.74 in the prior week...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Ease as Rates Stay Elevated
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Market Volume Index declined 1.6% last week (+10.9% y/y)...
Germany's Consumer Climate Continues to Improve
German consumer climate will advance to 10.2 in in June after logging 10.1 in May...
U.S. New Home Sales Improve With Prices
New home sales during April recovered 6.8% to 517,000 units (26.1% y/y) from 484,000 in March...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Softens
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated that Texas business conditions eased sharply this month...
U.S. FHFA Home Price Increase Eases
The FHFA U.S. House Price Index increased 0.3% during March (5.2% y/y) following a 0.6% February rise...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption