- China: Guangdong PMI, Soufun House Price Index (Feb)
- Uganda: CPI, Prelim (Feb); Egypt: Public Finance, International Trade (Jan); Turkey: Cost of Living Idx (Feb); Qatar: PPI (Dec); Israel: Population (Feb); Bahrain: CPI (Jan); Egypt: LFS (Q4)
- UK: CBI Composite Indicator (Feb)
- China: Soufun 100-City House Price Press Release, Manufacturing PMI, Non-manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- Spain: Pharmaceutical Spending (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Plummets
Chicago purchasing managers indicated that their February Business Barometer Index dropped sharply to 45.8 this month from an unrevised 59.4 in January...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Rebound
The NAR reported that pending sales of single-family homes rebounded 1.7% during January...
Italy's Inflation In An About Face
Suddenly after outright falls for two straight months, Italy's inflation rate is up by 0.6% in February...
U.S. Consumer Prices Decline as Energy Prices Plummet; Core Prices Improve
The consumer price index fell 0.7% during January following a revised 0.3% decline during December...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound as Aircraft Orders Jump; Trend Growth Weakens
New orders for durable goods improved 2.8% (5.4% y/y) following sharp declines in four of the previous five months...
U.S. FHFA Home Price Index Ends 2014 at Firm Pace
The U.S. House Price Index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) increased 0.8% in December, after November's 0.7% gain...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption