- Japan: **Wage Indexes delayed due to technical difficulties from the source**
- Japan: Loans and Discounts Outstanding (Feb)
- Korea: IP, Composite Indexes, Equipment Investment Index, Wholesale and Retail Trade (Feb); Singapore: Credit Card Statistics (Feb), Gross External Debt (Q4)
- UK: GFK Consumer Confidence (Mar)
- New Zealand: Building Consents Issued, Monetary & Credit Aggregates, Household Debts & Deposits, Registered Banks (Feb),
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Dallas Fed Factory Sector Activity Erodes Further
The Dallas Fed reported that its March Composite index of factory sector activity deteriorated to -17.4...
NABE Forecast Calls for Firm and Steady Economic Growth
The NABE forecast of 2.9% growth in U.S. real economic activity next year follows an expected 3.1% rise this year...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Increase Again
The NAR reported that pending sales of single-family homes improved another 3.1% during February following a 1.2% January rise...
EU Indices Improve in March
The EU Commission indices for the EU and EMU showed improvement in both regions in March...
U.S. GDP Growth is Unchanged at 2.2%; Corporate Profits Decline
Real GDP growth of 2.2% during Q4 2014 was unrevised in the latest estimate (2.4% y/y)...
French Households Begin to Feel Better... But Not Well
The French household confidence reading has been stuck in a range of mostly the mid- to high-80s...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption