- US: Consumer Credit (Jan), Employment Situation (Feb), International Trade (Jan)
- US: Value & Weight of Imports and Exports (Jan)
- US: Imports & Exports by State (Jan)
- Mexico Semimonthly CPI
- Canada: Labor Force Survey (Feb), Labor Productivity (Q4), Trade (Jan)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- Ireland: Motor Vehicle Registrations, International Reserves (Feb),
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Remains Firm
The Federal Reserve Board reported that consumer credit outstanding increased $13.7 billion (5.8% y/y) during January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Holds Steady
The U.S. foreign trade deficit remained at $39.1 billion in January versus December's $39.0 billion...
German IP Picks Up Strongly As Consumer Goods Lag
Germany's industrial production in January rose by 0.8%, continuing a string of advances...
U.S. Financial Accounts Show Larger Total Credit Demand, But Households and Corporations Use Less
The Federal Reserve's financial accounts data for Q4 show total credit market borrowing at a $3.12 trillion annual rate...
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Move Lower
The labor market continues to show erratic improvement...
U.S. Worker Productivity Growth Is Revised Lower
Nonfarm business sector productivity improved 1.8% last quarter (1.3% y/y), revised down from last month's estimate of 3.2% growth...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption