- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Oct)
- US: Regional Payroll Employment (Oct)
- Canada: CPI (Oct)
- UK: Public Sector Finance (Oct)
- Malaysia: CPI (Oct); Korea: First 20 Days of Trade (Nov); India: External Commercial Borrowings (Oct)
- Ireland: Wholesale and Producer Prices (Oct)
- Mexico: GDP (Q3), Economic Activity (Sep)
- Hungary: Wages (Sep); Montenegro: Employment (Sep), BOP (Q3);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Factory Sector Activity Improves
The Kansas City Fed reported that its Composite index of 10th District factory sector activity recovered to 7 this month...
Does Canada's Rising Inflation Rate Give the Central Bank Tough Choices?
Canada's CPI inflation for October saw headline growth at 2.4% year-over-year...
U.S. Consumer Prices Remain Unchanged; Core Prices Heat Up
The consumer price index held steady during October (1.7% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% September uptick...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue Improvement
Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.5% to 5.260 million (AR, +2.5% y/y) in October from 5.180 million in September...
Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index Rebounds; Nears 1993 High
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index for November jumped to 40.8 from 20.7 in October...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index Firms
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.9% last month (6.8% y/y) following a 0.7% September rise...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption