- Brazil: Consumer Confidence (Jul)
- Iraq: Crude Oil Exports (Jun); Kuwait: GDP (2015)
- Germany: Construction Orders, Employment & Turnover (May), Ifo Business Climate Survey (Jul)
- Montenegro: Foreign Trade, IP, Industrial Turnover (Jun); Czech Republic: CPI (Jun), Business Cycle Survey (Jul); Slovenia: Confidence Indicators (Jul)
- Austria: Industrial Production, New Orders and Turnover (May)
- Finland: Domestic Supply Prices, Wholesale Prices (Jun)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Existing Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of existing homes rose 1.1% (3.0% y/y) during June to 5.570 million (AR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Modestly in May
The Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) index of U.S. house prices rose a modest 0.2% m/m (5.6% y/y) in May...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rebound
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during June (0.7% y/y)...
Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Survey Provides Mixed Readings
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index declined in July to -2.9...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Dip
Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 253,000 (-3.8% y/y) during the week ended July 16...
Chicago Fed National Activity Improves
The National Activity Index from the Chicago Fed increased to 0.16 during June from -0.56 in May...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption