- Israel: Quantity Demanded for New Dwelling (May)
- Ireland: IP Press (May)
- Russia: Domestic Debt (Jun)
- Switzerland: CPI, HICP (Jun)
- Spain: Industrial Production (May)
- Germany: Manufacturing Sales & Orders (May)
- Malaysia: Oil Statistics (May); Vietnam: IP (Jun); Thailand: Consumer Confidence (Jun)
- Japan: Certificates of Deposit Outstanding (May), Index of Business
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Nudge Higher
Initial unemployment insurance claims gained to 281,000 (-10.7% y/y) in the week ended June 27...
Euro Area PPI Inflation Still Falls Year-on-Year
In May the PPI excluding construction was dead flat...
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Backpedal; Trucks Share Improves
Total sales of light vehicles declined 3.5% during June to 17.16 million units (+1.5% y/y)...
U.S. ADP: Payroll Rise Is Strongest This Year
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls improved 237,000 during June following a 203,000 May increase...
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Improves to Best Level Since January
Factory sector activity is strengthening...
Challenger Job Cut Announcements Improve
The outplacement firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that job cut announcements during June increased to 44,842 (42.7% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption