- US: Consumer Expendiure Survey (2014), ISM Non-Mfg (Aug)
- US: Value & Weight of Imports and Exports (Jul)
- US: International Trade (Jul), ISM Non-Mfg (Aug)
- US: International Trade Detail (Jul)
- US: Imports & Exports by State (Jul)
- Markit PMI: Service Survey - Japan, Russia, India, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Eurozone, UK, European Union, Australia, US, Developed Markets, Global, Emerging Markets (Aug) Composite - Japan, Russia, Ireland, India, South Africa, Kenya
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Trade Deficit Is Shallower
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in goods and services during July eased to $41.9 billion from $45.2 billion in June...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Applications Rebound to Eight-Week High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rebounded to 282,000 during the week ended August 29 from 270,000 in the prior week...
Challenger Job Cut Announcements Pull Back
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that job cut announcements during August declined sharply to 41,186...
Euro Area Total Private PMI Gauge Moves Higher
The EMU PMI rose to 54.3 in August from 53.9 in July...
U.S. ADP Payroll Increase Is Fairly Stable
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 190,000 during August following a 177,000 July...
U.S. Productivity is Revised Higher Following Two Quarters of Decline
Nonfarm productivity growth during Q2'15 was revised higher to 3.3% from 1.3% reported initially...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption