- US: Consumer Confidence (Oct), S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA House Price Index (Aug)
- World Trade and IP (Aug)
- World Trade and IP (Aug)
- Saudi Arabia: WPI (Sep); South Africa: Leading Indicators (Aug); Turkey: Business Tendency Survey, Capacity Utilization (Oct)
- Spain: Producer Price Index, Auto Production (Sep)
- Mexico: Retail Trade (Sep); Brazil: BOP (Sep)
- France: INSEE Surveys: Business (Q4/Oct), Services, Retail and
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves
The National Activity Index from the Chicago Fed increased to -0.14 during September from -0.72 in August...
Euro Area PMIs Surprise
The early flash PMI readings for the EMU, Germany and France show upside surprises mainly on the gains in the manufacturing indices in October...
U.S. State Unemployment Rates Range from 2.9% to 6.9%
The decline in the overall U.S. unemployment rate has stabilized this year around 4.9% versus 5.3% during 2015...
What's Goin' On? The PPP PPPardox
Why do things continue to go off-track in the global economy?...
U.S. Economic Growth Restrained By Broad Trends
During the last 10 years, economic growth has averaged 1.4% per annum...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Rebound
Sales of existing homes increased 3.2% (0.6% y/y) in September to 5.470 million units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption