- New Zealand: External Migration (Jan)
- Bangladesh: Monetary Survey (Dec), BOP (Nov), E-Banking and E-Commerce (Q4)
- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Jan)
- US: New Residential Sales (Jan)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Feb-final)
- Ireland: Personal Bankruptcies (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Confidence Registers Split-Decision
In February, Italian consumer confidence trolled a five-month low while business confidence perked up...
U.S. FHFA House Price Measure Increases Steadily
The FHFA U.S. house price index rose 6.2% during all of 2016...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Applications Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 244,000 (-7.6% y/y) during the week ended February 18...
German GfK Confidence Will Step Back in March
Despite a coming setback to German confidence in March, the GfK look-ahead confidence reading remains strong...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Increase in January; Prices Slip
Sales of existing single-family homes increased 3.3% (3.8% y/y) to 5.690 million units (AR) during January...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Slip; Crude Oil Improves
Regular gasoline prices of $2.30 per gallon (+33.1% y/y) last week were down a penny from the prior week...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption