- Peru: GDP, BOP (Q1)
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Apr)
- US: Final Building Permits, Advance Durable Goods (Apr)
- New Zealand: International Trade (Apr), AON Econ Survey (Q2)
- US: Regional Building Permits (Apr and YTD)
- Austria: IP, Industrial Turnover (Mar); Portugal: Public Finance (Apr), Trade by Country (Mar)
- Italy: ISTAT Consumer Survey (May), BoP (Mar), IIP (Q4), Price Competitiveness Indicators (Feb), Contractual Wages (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
IFO Rebounds; Beer Remains Protected
IFO gauge of German real sector activity shows a pickup in May compared April...
U.S. New Home Sales Near Cycle-High as
Prices Surge to Record
New home sales increased 2.3% (29.0% y/y) last month to 454,000 (AR) from a revised 444,000 during March, initially reported as 417,000...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Pull Back
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 340,000 (-8.4% y/y) during the week ended May 18 ...
FHFA Home Price Index Remains in an Uptrend
Improved housing markets are lending strength to home-sellers' pricing power...
Flash PMIs gain ground in Europe: so what?!
In May the purchasing managers indices that assess the manufacturing and services sectors in the European Monetary Union are showing that both sectors continue to decline...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Improve Modestly; Prices Gain
Existing home sales gained 0.6% in April (+9.7% y/y) to a 4.970M annual rate...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption