- Euro area: **Detailed BOP Tables Delayed Due to Source's Technical Issues**
- Ireland: IIP, External Debt (Q3), PPI (Nov)
- Brazil: IPCA15 (Dec)
- Austria: Tourism Arrivals (Oct)
- Georgia: GDP (Q3), Money Supply, Other Depository Corporations Survey (Nov); Lithuania: IIP, BOP, External Debt (Q3); Hungary: Wages (Oct); Armenia: External Trade, IP, PPI (Nov-Prelim)
- Euro area: Balance of Payments Summary (Oct)
- UK: GFK Consumer Confidence (Dec); Turnover & Orders in Production
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Edge Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance during the week ended December 13 fell to 289,000 (-21.5% y/y)...
Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index Indicates Moderating Growth
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index for December declined to 24.5...
German Ifo Bounces in December
The climate, current and expectations indices bounced higher in December from a local low in November...
FOMC Indicates Patience Toward Raising Rates
The Fed indicated, "Based on its current assessment (of the economy), the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy."...
U.S. Consumer Prices Post Largest Decline Since 2008; Core Prices Moderate
Inflationary pressures remain well contained...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens Slightly
The U.S. current account deficit deepened in Q3'14 to $100.3 billion from $98.4 billion in Q2...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption