- New Zealand: Composite PMI (Aug); Australia: New Motor Vehicle Sales (Aug)
- BIS: Exchange Traded Derivatives (Q2)
- Korea: Import & Export Price Indexes (Aug)
- Israel: BOP (Q2); Iraq: CPI (Aug); Palestine: CPI (Aug); Nigeria: CPI (Aug)
- Bangladesh: IP (Apr); China: Real Estate Investment; Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Business Inventory Gain Is Steady; Sales Increase Firms
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in July (5.9% y/y) after an unrevised 0.4% rise during June...
U.S. Import and Export Prices Move Lower
Import prices fell 0.9% during August (-0.4% y/y) following a revised 0.3% decline during July...
European Manufacturing Falls Further Behind the U.S.
Euro area industrial output showed a strong rebound of 1% in July from its decline of 0.3% in June...
U.S. Quarterly Service Survey (QSS) Indicates Revenue Rebounding
The latest figures covering activity in the health care industry indicated a 2.5% recovery (4.6% y/y) in revenues last quarter...
U.S. Budget Deficit's Decline Continues
The Federal Government posted a $128.7 billion budget deficit during August of FY 2014...
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Move Higher
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 315,000 during the week ended September 6 from 304,000 in the prior week...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption