- Korea: First 20 Days of Trade (Oct)
- New Zealand: External Migration (Sep); Australia: Imports (Sep)
- Brazil: IGP-M2 (Oct)
- Turkey: Private Loans from Abroad (Aug), Foreign PPI (Sep); Israel: PMI (Sep); Qatar: Real Estate Price Index (Sep)
- Italy: Industrial Turnover and Orders (Aug)
- UK: Rightmove House Price Index (Oct), Capital Issuance (Sep)
- Euro area: Balance of Payments (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Orders Rebound but Go Nowhere
Italian industrial orders in August rose by 1.5% after a 1.5% decline in July...
U.S. Housing Starts Rebound Led By Multi-Family
Housing starts during September recovered 6.3% to 1.017 million (AR, 17.8% y/y) after a 12.8% decline to 957,000 during August...
Vehicle Registrations Continue Annual Gains But....
European auto registrations continue their year-over-year gains in September...
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Unexpectedly Reach New Low
Initial unemployment insurance claims during the week ended October 11 fell to 264,000 (-25.6% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builders Index Retreat Is Country Wide
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo fell back to 54 during October from an unrevised 59 in September...
Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index Declines Again
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index for October fell to 20.7 from 22.5 in September...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption