- France: Registered Unemployed & Job Vacancies (Aug)
- Worldwide Governance Indicators (2015)
- US: New Residential Sales (Aug)
- IMF: Balance of Payments, International Investment Position
- IMF: International Financial Statistics
- Palestine: IIP (Q2); UAE: Money Supply (Aug); Israel: Chain Store Sales (Aug); Saudi Arabia: Foreign Trade Indexes (2015), CPI (Aug); Jordan: Foreign Trade (Jul-Prelim)
- Japan: Index of Business Condition (Jul-Final), Flow of Funds
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Dallas Fed Factory Sector Activity Improves
The Dallas Fed reported that its general activity index of factory sector activity in Texas remained negative during September...
Surprise Spurt in Germany's IFO: Should You Believe It?
Germany's business expectations in the IFO survey 'flipped' from a reading of -2.8 in August to one of +5.9 in September...
Euro Area Composite PMI Weakens; Trends Diverge
The EMU composite (private sector) index has fallen in September to a diffusion reading of 52.6 from 52.9 in August...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline
Sales of existing homes fell 0.9% (+0.8% y/y) during August to 5.330 million units after 3.4% July decline to 5.380 million units...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Decline
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.2% during August (+1.1% y/y)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Eases
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices increased 0.5% during July following a 0.3% June gain...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption