- New Zealand: Household Labor Force Survey Revisions (Q1), International Reserves (May); Australia: HIA New Home Sales (May), Value of Private Construction (Q2)
- Korea: Economic Sentiment Index, Business Survey Index (Jun)
- Japan: International Trade, Banking Accounts Regional Banks, Lease Statistics (May), Wholesale and Retail Trade (May-Prelim), First 10 Days Trade (Jun)
- Ireland: Corporate Insolvencies (2015)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. GDP Growth and Corporate Profits Revised Higher
Economic growth during the first quarter was revised up slightly...
U.S. Petroleum Prices Decline; Natural Gas Jumps Higher
Regular gasoline prices declined to $2.33 per gallon last week (-16.9% y/y)...
Italian Consumer Confidence Makes Clear U-Turn
Italy's drop in consumer confidence is not about Brexit; it's about Italy...
Euro Area: Pre-Brexit Snap Shot of Financial Conditions
Brexit came as a shock and now we must monitor all relevant trends to see what will be affected in the post-Brexit period...
Dallas Fed Factory Sector Activity Index Remains Depressed
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its general activity index of factory sector activity remained negative during June...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Paced by Military Aircraft
New orders for durable goods declined 2.2% during May (+3.2% y/y) following a 3.3% April increase...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2012
Personal income increased just 0.2% during February after lessened gains of 0.2% and 0.4% during the prior two months. The latest rise missed expectations for a 0.4% gain. Wage & salary disbursements reflected the improved gains in payroll employment with a 0.3% rise (4.4% y/y). However, the firm gain was offset by another dip in interest income (-3.1% y/y) and just a 0.1% rise (1.0% y/y) in transfer receipts. Disposable personal income rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) although take-home pay, when adjusted for price inflation, slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four.
Despite these disappointments consumers kept spending. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.8% (4.1% y/y), their strongest gain in a year. Earlier figures were revised upward. Expectations had been for a 0.6% rise. The increase was driven by a 3.9% rise (2.6% y/y) in spending on gasoline, a 3.3% gain (9.5% y/y) in motor vehicles and a 1.2% increase (4.4% y/y) in clothing. Spending on recreation also rose a firm 0.9% (7.5% y/y). The rise in gasoline outlays actually translated into a 7.0% y/y decline when adjusted for higher prices. Overall, when adjusted for inflation real PCE increased 0.5% (1.8% y/y), the best gain since June.
All this spending came at the expense of savings. The personal savings rate fell to 3.7% from a downwardly revised 4.3% during January. It remained below the 5.0% level twelve months ago and a 2010 monthly high of 5.8%.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% last month (2.3% y/y), the strongest increase since August. The increase reflected a 5.7% rise (10.4% y/y) in gasoline prices after a 0.9% January rise. The core PCE price index ticked up 0.1% and the y/y increase of 1.9% was up from the record low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Okun's Law and Long Expansions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
|Personal Income & Outlays(%)||Feb||Jan||Dec||Y/Y||2011||2010||2009|
|Wages & Salaries||0.3||0.4||0.4||4.4||4.3||2.2||-4.3|
|Personal Saving Rate||3.7||4.3||4.7||5.0
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.3||0.2||0.1||2.3||2.5||1.8||0.2|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.2||0.2||1.9||1.4||1.4||1.6|
|Real Personal Consumption