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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Robert Brusca March 28, 2012
Italy’s retail sales volume picked up in January rising by 0.5% after a long period of weakness. If we look
at monthly retail sales volumes, we have to go back to January of 2007 to find a prior 12-month period in
which sales volumes rose in more months than they fell. As of January 2012, retail sales have fallen in
10 of the last 12 months despite this month’s bump up in sales.
Not surprisingly Italy’s retail sales show negative rates of growth over 3-months over 6-months and over 12-months. The weakness is progressively worse; for sales volumes three month and six month growth rates at nearly the same pace and are below the yr/yr pace.
Italy’s retail sales growth is only slightly worse than that for EMU as a whole. Since the financial crisis, Italy’s performance has become more closely tied to that of the Zone than it had been before, as the chart plainly shows.
Austerity and the German short-leash on formerly adventurous Southern EMU economies are pulling them into the fold. While the fate of the Southern nations is far from sealed, their scope for independent policy has been drastically reduced as their backs have been bent to whip of austerity. Even as economic performance deteriorates there has been no taste to let up on the stern targets set for them
One day the Southern EMU members may have seemed care-free and independent but that day is no longer this day. And now the future for the Mediterranean members of EMU may depend on how much austerity they can stomach. And the pressure is growing.
In Greece the minority parties already are making inroads. So far the Zone has been able to bend the leadership in the Southern states to the task of austerity but the whole plan is in jeopardy if the people do not buy into it. And the people are not buying into it.
Italy Retail Sales Growth | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mo/Mo % | At Annual Rates | |||||||
Nominal | Jan 12 |
Dec 11 |
Nov 11 |
3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | YrAgo | Q-2-D |
Retail Trade | 0.7% | -0.8% | -0.7% | -3.2% | -2.2% | -1.6% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
Food Bev & Tobacco | 1.2% | -0.9% | -0.8% | -1.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
Clothing & Furniture | 1.9% | -1.3% | 0.2% | 2.9% | -0.6% | -2.1% | -1.7% | 6.4% |
Total Real Retail | 0.5% | -1.1% | -0.8% | -5.4% | -5.5% | -4.6% | -2.3% | -2.9% |