Recent Updates
- Japan: Trends in National Market for Condominiums (Jan)
- China: Retail Price Index (Jan)
- Singapore: Fixed Asset Investments (Q4)
- Australia: Overseas Arrivals and Departures (Dec)
- Korea: Import & Export Price Indexes (Jan)
- Turkey: House Price Index (Dec)
- UK: Rightmove HPI (Feb), LSL/Acadata HPI (Jan)
- Albania: Trade by Commodity (Jan-Prelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Import Prices Continue Their Decline; Both Oil and Nonoil Prices Move Lower
Import prices fell a greater-than-expected 0.5% during January (-1.7% year-on-year)...
Empire State Manufacturing Activity Improves Modestly
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 8.8 during February...
EMU-16 Trade Flows and Balance
EMU-wide exports ticked lower in December as imports were flat...
U.S. Retail Sales Exhibit Extensive Weakness
Total retail sales declined 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) during December...
U.S. Producer Prices Decline; Core PPI Rises
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index edged down 0.1% for the second consecutive month in January (+2.0% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller March 22, 2012
The economic outlook is getting brighter. The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicator index gained 0.7% during February following a revised 0.2% January rise, last month reported as 0.4%. A 0.6% increase had been expected. Last month 80% of the component series rose. That's versus just 25% at the low last September. Lower initial claims for jobless insurance, a steeper interest rate yield curve, higher building permits and higher stock prices had the largest effects raising the overall leading index. The separate Leading Credit Index declined for a second month and indicated tighter conditions versus the easy state of last Summer & Fall.
The index of coincident indicators rose 0.2% for the second month. The y/y growth rate of 3.0% was its best since last March. Higher manufacturing & trade sales, increased payroll employment and improved personal income made positive contributions to the index change last month. Industrial production was unchanged.
The index of lagging indicators, designed to measure economic slack, rose 0.2% following a 0.5% January rise.
Another leading economic series is the ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators. It measures how the economy is performing versus its excesses. It was unchanged last month but has been slipping since early last year.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figure is the Consensus in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 7.6 | -12.8 |
Coincident | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | -7.7 |
Lagging | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | -2.9 | -1.0 |