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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Louise Curley March 20, 2012
Consumers in the Benelux Custom Union, the
Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, are early indicators of changes in
consumer confidence. March data for Belgium and the Netherlands were
released today. Confidence increased among the Belgium
consumers but declined among Dutch consumers. Consumers in
Luxembourg have yet to be heard from. They are, however, only a small part
of the Custom Union. (The populations of the three countries are:
the Netherlands: 16.7 million, Belgium,11.0 million and Luxembourg 0.5 million.)
Confidence in the Custom Union is measured by the difference between the percentage of optimists and of pessimists. In Belgium, the balance of opinion rose from -20% in February to -12% in March while the balance of opinion in the Netherlands declined from -36% in February to -39% in March. As can be seen in the attached chart, confidence began to falter in early 2011 with the rise of the Euro Crisis. Confidence in Luxembourg and Belgium has only just begun to show some signs of improvement with the recent alleviation of the Greek situation, but confidence in the Netherlands remains close to its all time low. The March figure for consumer confidence in the Netherlands was only 1 percentage point above the all time low of -40% in July 2003 and 5 percentage points above the -34% of March 2009. Consumers in Belgium and in Luxembourg appear to be more optimistic than those in the Netherlands.
Mar-12 | Feb-12 | Mar-11 | M/M Chg | Y/Y Chg | 2011 | 2010 | 2000 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence (% Balance) | ||||||||
Netherlands | -39 | -36 | -8 | -3 | -31 | -18 | -13 | -12 |
Belgium | -12 | -20 | -2 | +8 | -10 | -47 | -8 | -5 |
Luxembourg | N/A | -6 | 5 | -- | -- | 1 | 0 | -11 |