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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 19, 2012
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo reported that its index of housing market activity remained at its highest level since June of 2007. The Composite Housing Market Index for March was unchanged at 28 following several months of strong gain which were unrevised. The index of single-family home sales slipped a point to 29 following February's five point rise, but was still the highest reading since 2007. However, these figures still were down from levels near 70 in 2004. The index of sales during the next six months rose another two points to 36, also the best reading since 2007. Finally, the home builders' index of traffic of prospective was unchanged m/m to 22 and remained sharply improved versus last year. By region, the West retraced half of its February rise as the Midwest, Northeast and the South each rose. Each of these NAHB figures is seasonally adjusted.
The Home Builders' Housing Opportunity Index, which is the share of homes sold that could be considered affordable to a family earning the median income, improved slightly in Q3 to 72.9%. It thus remained near the record high, buoyed by lower home prices, lower interest rates and higher income. (There is a break in the series from 2002 to 2003.)
The Home Builders index is compiled from survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results, along with other housing and remodeling indexes from NAHB Economics, are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
National Association of Home Builders | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 28 | 28 | 25 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Single-Family Sales | 29 | 30 | 25 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 36 | 34 | 29 | 26 | 23 | 23 | 24 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 22 | 22 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
Northeast | 25 | 20 | 23 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 17 |
Midwest | 32 | 30 | 24 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
South | 27 | 25 | 28 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
West | 33 | 43 | 21 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 12 |