Recent Updates
- Malaysia: Motor Vehicle Sales (Apr)
- Malaysia: House Price Index by State (Q1)
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- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 16, 2012
The weather can immensely impact factory output, and during the last
few months that was notably true. Industrial production was unchanged last month
(4.0% y/y) following a
revised 0.4% January rise, initially reported as no change. The latest figure
disappointed Consensus expectations for a 0.4% increase according to Action
Economics. Factory sector output added 0.2% (5.0% y/y) to its
strengthened 1.1% January rise. Warm temperatures lowered utility
output by another 0.1% last month (-7.1% y/y) and mining output was off
1.2% (+4.3% y/y).
Business equipment production continued strong with a 0.6% rise. During the last twelve months, output increased 10.8% and equaled last year's rise. This y/y gain still reflects a one-quarter y/y rise in transit equipment, 9.0% y/y growth in information processing & other and a 6.3% y/y rise in industrial supplies & other. In the consumer sector, where output rose 1.5% y/y, auto production jumped 13.8% y/y while computers, video & audio posted a modest 2.9% y/y gain. Appliance, furniture & carpeting production rose 3.8% y/y. Nondurables output rose 2.0% y/y but clothing production was off 1.2% y/y. Excluding the high-tech & motor vehicle industries, industrial production increased 3.7% y/y as of February following like y/y gains in 2011 and 2010.
Capacity utilization slipped to 78.7% last month. In manufacturing alone, utilization ticked up to 77.4%, up from the recession low of 64.4%. Overall capacity is estimated to have risen 1.2% y/y following a 0.3% uptick last year and a 2.2% decline during 2010. In the factory sector, capacity rose 1.0% y/y but excluding the high-tech industries the rise was just 0.3% following four years of decline.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Policy Initiatives in the Global Recession: What Did Forecasters Expect? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | -11.2 |
Manufacturing | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | -13.5 |
Consumer Goods | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 4.3 | -7.2 |
Business Equipment | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 7.7 | -16.3 |
Construction Supplies | 1.1 | -0.1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | -22.5 |
Materials | -0.3 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | -11.6 |
Utilities | 0.0 | -2.2 | -3.1 | -5.6 | -0.1 | 4.0 | -2.6 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.7 | 78.8 | 78.5 | 76.5 | 77.3 | 74.5 | 69.1 |
Manufacturing | 77.4 | 77.3 | 76.5 | 74.4 | 74.9 | 71.7 | 66.2 |