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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 15, 2012
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply during the week ended March 10 to 351,000 from 365,000 during the previous period, initially estimated at 362,000. Claims averaged 355,750 (-8.4% y/y) during the last four weeks. The figures remain the lowest since March 2008. The latest compared to Consensus expectations for 358,000. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 3.343M during the week of March 3, still near their lowest since August 2008. The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.6%, the lowest also since August 2008. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of February 25th, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients ticked up to 7.424MM (-17.1% y/y).
By state, the insured unemployment rate varied as of February 25 with Virginia (1.6%), Texas (1.7%), Florida (1.9%), Louisiana (2.1%), Arizona (2.2%), Tennessee (2.3%), and Ohio (2.7%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were rates in New York (3.7%), Maine (3.8%), California (4.1%), Michigan (4.2%), Massachusetts (4.2%), New Jersey (4.4%), and Pennsylvania (4.8%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus estimates are in AS1REPNA.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/10/12 | 03/03/12 | 02/25/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 351 | 365 | 354 | -10.0 | 409 | 459 | 574 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 3,343 | 3,424 | -11.2 | 3,745 | 4,544 | 5,807 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.0 (3/11) |
3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 7.424M | -17.1 | 2.750M | 9.850M | 9.163M |