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Economy in Brief

U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Are Still Near Four Year Low
by Tom Moeller  March 8, 2012

Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up during the week ended March 3 to 362,000 from 354,000 during the previous period, initially estimated at 351,000. Claims averaged 355,000 (-10.4% y/y) during the last four weeks. The figures remain the lowest since March 2008. The latest compared to Consensus expectations for 355,000. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 3.416M during the week of February 25, still near their lowest since August 2008. The insured rate of unemployment rate held for the fourth consecutive week at 2.7% w/w, the recovery low. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of February 11th, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients ticked up to 7.388M (-15.8% y/y).

By state, the insured unemployment rate varied as of February 18 with Virginia (1.6%), Texas (1.7%), Florida (1.9%), Louisiana (2.1%), Arizona (2.2%), Tennessee (2.3%), and Ohio (2.7%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were rates in New York (3.5%), Maine (3.7%), California (3.9%), Michigan (4.0%), Massachusetts (4.0%), New Jersey (4.2%), and Pennsylvania (4.4%).

Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus estimates are in AS1REPNA.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 03/03/12 02/25/12 02/18/12 Y/Y% 2011 2010 2009
Initial Claims 362 354 353 -10.6 409 459 574
Continuing Claims -- 3,416 3,406 -10.6 3,745 4,544 5,807
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) -- 2.7 2.7 3.0
3.0 3.6 4.4
Total "All Programs" (NSA) -- -- 7.388M -15.8 2.750M 9.850M 9.163M
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