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Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Decline
Despite the recent improvement in U.S. factory output, many industrial commodity prices have weakened...
U.K. Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 7, 2012
The job market continues to improve at a moderate rate. Private nonfarm
payrolls rose 216,000 last month after rising 173,000 during January,
revised from 170,000 reported last month. Earlier figures were revised due
to updated seasonal factors. The figures come from the payroll processor
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic
Advisers. The latest increase beat Consensus expectations for a 200,000
gain and it left three-month growth at 2.4% (AR).
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report February payroll employment on Friday. Economists expect a 235,000 worker increase in private sector jobs. By comparison, the January increase of 173,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 257,000 gain in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP figure and the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiles its estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
The service sector again led improvement in the job market. Its 170,000 worker gain (1.8% y/y) contrasted to an improved 46,000 increase (1.3% y/y) in goods-producing payrolls while factory sector jobs rose 21,000 (1.0% y/y). Overall, small-sized payrolls again showed the greatest improvement with a 108,000 (1.9% y/y) gain. Medium-sized payrolls followed with an 88,000 (2.0% y/y) increase while large payrolls grew 20,000 (0.6% y/y). Construction employment grew 16,,000 and the number of financial activities jobs rose 14,000, the largest gain since 2005.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
ADP National Employment Report | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) | 216 | 173 | 267 | 1.7% | 1.4% | -1.0% | -4.1% |
Small Payroll (1-49) | 108 | 93 | 123 | 1.9 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -4.1 |
Medium Payroll (50-499) | 88 | 76 | 117 | 2.0 | 1.8 | -0.9 | -5.7 |
Large Payroll (>500) | 20 | 4 | 27 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -1.8 | -5.6 |
Goods Producing | 46 | 24 | 42 | 1.3 | 0.8 | -4.8 | -12.4 |
Manufacturing | 21 | 16 | 16 | 1.0 | 1.3 | -3.2 | -11.4 |
Service Producing | 170 | 149 | 225 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -3.2 |