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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 5, 2012
Orders in the manufacturing sector fell 1.0% (+7.4% y/y) during January and reversed much of a little-revised 1.4% December jump. The decline owed to a 3.7% fall in orders for durable goods. That was little-revised from the advance report of a 4.0% drop indicated last week. The shortfall reflected much-lower orders for aircraft. Orders for nondurable goods offset some of that decline with a 1.3% rise (6.5% y/y). That reflected a 3.3% jump in oil refinery shipments (8.0% y/y), which for nondurables equal orders. Excluding oil shipments rose 0.6% (5.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders rose 0.6% (9.5% y/y) led by a 1.8% rise (14.8% y/y) in nondefense aircraft. Less transportation altogether, backlogs rose 0.2% (9.5% y/y) paced by a 0.6% rise (24.4% y/y) in machinery and a 0.8% gain (17.3% y/y) in electrical equipment. Order backlogs of furniture rose just 1.9% y/y while computers were unchanged. Shipments from the manufacturing sector rose 0.9% (7.6% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector increased another 0.6% (8.8% y/y) during January as durable goods inventories rose 0.6% (10.4% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories swelled by 2.9% (6.3% y/y) while machinery inventories rose 1.5% (14.1% y/y). Nondurables inventories rose 0.6% (6.4% y/y) reflecting a 2.2% (16.3% y/y) jump in oil. Apparel inventories also were strong and rose 1.6% (18.1% y/y) but basic chemicals ticked up just 0.1% (3.6% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
Factory Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orders | -1.0 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 7.4 | 12.2 | 12.9 | -21.7 |
Shipments | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.6 | -18.5 |
Inventories | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 8.7 | -6.8 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 3.9 | -15.2 |