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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller March 1, 2012
Forward momentum in factory sector activity waned a bit last month. The Composite Index of industrial sector activity from the Institute For Supply Management slipped to 52.4 from an unrevised 54.1 in January. The latest reading disappointed Consensus expectations for a rise to 55.0. Nevertheless, the figure above the break-even level of 50 continued to indicate an expanding level of overall activity. During the last ten years there has been an 80% correlation between the index level and the three-month change in factory sector production.
All of the component series either fell or were unchanged last month. The greatest decline occurred in supplier deliveries indicating faster delivery speeds. That is consistent with the next greatest component decline which was new orders. The employment series also fell m/m but it remained above break-even. During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the employment series level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The price index rose another sharp six points to 61.5, its second month since September above the break-even level of 50. Thirty one percent of firms raised prices, the most since July, while a reduced eight percent lowered them, the least since May. During the last ten years there has been an 83% correlation between the index and the m/m change in the core intermediate producer price index.
The separate index of new export orders rose sharply to 59.5, its best since April. The imports series also rose to 54.0, its highest since September.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations data are in the AS1REPNA database.
ISM Mfg | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Index | 52.4 | 54.1 | 53.1 | 59.8 | 55.2 | 57.3 | 46.4 |
New Orders | 54.9 | 57.6 | 54.8 | 62.7 | 56.4 | 59.2 | 52.0 |
Production | 55.3 | 55.7 | 58.9 | 64.4 | 57.4 | 61.0 | 50.8 |
Employment | 53.2 | 54.3 | 54.8 | 61.1 | 57.4 | 57.3 | 40.7 |
Supplier Deliveries | 49.0 | 53.6 | 51.5 | 60.1 | 54.7 | 58.1 | 51.6 |
Inventories | 49.5 | 49.5 | 45.5 | 50.5 | 50.1 | 50.8 | 37.1 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 61.5 | 55.5 | 47.5 | 82.0 | 65.2 | 68.9 | 48.3 |