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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller February 23, 2012
Job market improvement remains in place. Initial unemployment insurance claims were unchanged last week at 351,000. (The previous week was revised from 348,000). The latest are the lowest figures since March 2008. Claims averaged 359,000 (-11.3% y/y) during the last four weeks, a new cycle low. The latest compared to Consensus expectations for 355,000.
The latest initial claims figure cover the survey week for February nonfarm payrolls. Claims fell 4,000 (-1.1%) from the January period. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance also fell to 3.392M during the week of February 11 and were their lowest since August 2008. The insured rate of unemployment rate held at 2.7% w/w, the recovery low. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of February 4th, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients fell to 7.503M (-18.1% y/y).
By state, the insured unemployment rate varied as of February 4 with Virginia (1.7%), Texas (1.8%), Florida (1.9%), Arizona (2.3%), Tennessee (2.4%), and Ohio (2.7%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were rates in New York (3.5%), Maine (3.8%), California (4.0%), Michigan (4.1%), New Jersey (4.3%), and Pennsylvania (4.5%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus estimates are in AS1REPNA.
What's Not Working This Time Around? Third Dialogue Examines Why Unemployment Remains High from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/18/12 | 02/11/12 | 02/04/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 351 | 351 | 361 | -8.6 | 409 | 459 | 574 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 3,392 | 3,44 | -11.9 | 3,745 | 4,544 | 5,807 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 (2/11) |
3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 7.503M | -18.1 | 2.750M | 9.850M | 9.163M |