Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (May-final), Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Apr)
- China: Public Funds Asset Mgmt, SOE Economy Operation (Apr), Star Rated Hotels (Q1)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Markedly in April
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $105.9 billion in April...
As Inflation Overshoots, Are Central Banks Overdoing It?
This report is a reminder of how complicated inflation and monetary policy making can be...
U.S. GDP Decline is Little-Revised in Q1'22; Corporate Profits Fall
U.S. real GDP fell 1.5%, SAAR (+3.5% y/y) last quarter...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 21, 2012
The January National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Chicago
Federal Reserve provides another sign of improving economic momentum. The
index slipped to 0.22 from 0.54 in December, which was revised up from
0.17. However, the three-month moving average rose to 0.14 which was its
highest since last March. The figures had been negative since then. During
the last ten years there has been an 80% correlation between the Chicago
Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
A lower Production & Income component was behind most of the m/m deterioration in the total. Offsetting that decline was a rise in the Employment, Unemployment & Hours series to its highest since last February. The Chicago Fed reported that fifty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index in January while 35 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. During August, 41 of the 85 component series made a positive contribution to the overall index while 44 made negative contributions.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Forecasting inflation with a lot of data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CFNAI | 0.22 | 0.54 | -0.34 | 0.27 | -0.10 | 0.00 | -1.62 |
3-Month Moving Average | 0.14 | 0.06 | -0.18 | 0.15 | -- | -- | -- |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.27 | -0.30 | -0.26 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.36 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.35 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.04 | -0.82 |
Production & Income | 0.11 | 0.54 | -0.18 | 0.30 | 0.09 | 0.22 | -0.27 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.03 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 0.07 | -0.16 |