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Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to Below Trend Growth in Q4
Activity index declines to -0.35 in December...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Increases Moderately
The FHFA Price Index increased 0.2% during November following a 0.4% October gain...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Ease after Prior Week's Surge
The MBA Mortgage Loan Index decreased 1.2% in the January 17 week...
U.S. Energy Prices Decline Again
Retail gasoline prices fell to $2.54 per gallon (+12.7% y/y) in the week ended January 20...
U.K. Industrial Optimism Makes a U-Turn for the Better
It is as though the CBI conducted its survey in Q4 and in Q1 in two different countries...
by Tom Moeller February 17, 2012
Consumer prices rose during January at their quickest pace in four months. The CPI increased 0.2% after being unchanged in December. A 0.3% gain had been the Consensus expectation. Figures back to 2007 were revised due to new seasonal factors. The faster rate of increase owed last month to an expected 0.2% rise in the total less food and energy. The increase lifted the gain versus last year to 2.3%, its quickest since 2008 and up from the 2010 full-year low of 1.0%.
Food & beverage prices rose 0.2% in January. The 12-month rise of 4.4% remained up sharply from 1.5% during 2010. Strength continued in prices of dairy products (9.0% y/y), meats (7.2% y/y) and cereal products (5.3% y/y). Energy prices rose 0.2% (6.1% y/y), the first increase in four months. Gasoline prices rose 0.9% (9.7% y/y) while fuel oil prices increased a not seasonally adjusted 1.2% (9.7% y/y). Gas & electricity prices fell 0.8% and ticked up just 0.4% y/y.
Quicker price gains for goods alone were behind the faster core inflation increase. They rose a moderate 0.2% last month. However, the 12-month increase of 2.2% was up from a 0.3% decline late in 2010. Apparel prices rose 0.9% (4.7% y/y) last month. Furniture & operations costs ticked up 0.1% and by 1.0% y/y after two years of decline. Motor vehicle prices fell 0.4%, down for the fifth straight month. The 2.6% 12-month rise was up from 0.8% in 2010.
Core service price increases also accelerated. They rose 0.2% last month for the ninth straight time but the y/y gain of 2.3% was up from 0.9% in 2010. Shelter costs (32% of the CPI) rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y). Owners equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.2% (1.8% y/y). Education costs were strong and rose 0.3% (4.4% y/y) and medical care service prices increased 0.2% (3.7% y/y). Public transportation prices fell 0.8% (+1.7% y/y), down for the third straight month. Recreation services costs rose 1.1% m/m and by an accelerated 1.7% y/y.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in consumption patterns, rebounded 0.4% last month (2.7% y/y). Chained prices less food & energy rose 0.2% and by 2.1% y/y.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | -0.3 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Food & Beverages | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Energy | 0.2 | -1.3 | -0.5 | 6.1 | 15.2 | 9.6 | -18.2 |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.5 | -0.1 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
