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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 15, 2012
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo reported that housing market activity continues to improve. The Composite Housing Market Index for February again rose four points to 29, its highest level since April 2007. Earlier numbers were unrevised. The index of single-family home sales rose five points to 30, also the highest since 2007 but still down from levels near 70 in 2004. The index of sales during the next six months rose five points to 34, its highest since 2007. Finally, the home builders' index of traffic of prospective buyers only ticked up m/m to 22 but remained sharply improved versus last year. By region, the West more-than-doubled the January figure and the Midwest rose to its highest since early 2003. Figures for the Northeast and the South fell moderately m/m. Each of these NAHB figures is seasonally adjusted.
The Home Builders' Housing Opportunity Index, which is the share of homes sold that could be considered affordable to a family earning the median income, improved slightly in Q3 to 72.9%. It thus remained near the record high, buoyed by lower home prices, lower interest rates and higher income. (There is a break in the series from 2002 to 2003.)
The Home Builders index is compiled from survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results, along with other housing and remodeling indexes from NAHB Economics, are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
National Association of Home Builders | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 29 | 25 | 21 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Single-Family Sales | 30 | 25 | 22 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 34 | 29 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 24 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 22 | 21 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
Northeast | 21 | 23 | 14 | 21 | 17 | 20 | 17 |
Midwest | 30 | 24 | 23 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
South | 25 | 28 | 25 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
West | 44 | 21 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 12 |