Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (May-final), Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Apr)
- China: Public Funds Asset Mgmt, SOE Economy Operation (Apr), Star Rated Hotels (Q1)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Markedly in April
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $105.9 billion in April...
As Inflation Overshoots, Are Central Banks Overdoing It?
This report is a reminder of how complicated inflation and monetary policy making can be...
U.S. GDP Decline is Little-Revised in Q1'22; Corporate Profits Fall
U.S. real GDP fell 1.5%, SAAR (+3.5% y/y) last quarter...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 14, 2012
U.S. import prices rose 0.3% last month after an unrevised 0.1% December slip. A 0.2% rise had been expected. Year-to-year, higher oil prices and the lower value of the dollar raised prices for imported products by 7.1% y/y. Petroleum prices rose 1.2% last month though the y/y gain continued to moderate. Brent crude oil rose to an average $110.49 per barrel and so far this month have risen further to average $116.36. Non-oil import prices held constant m/m and were up a lessened 2.5% y/y. The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last ten years has an 81% inverse correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.
Imported food & beverage prices jumped 2.3% last month (5.9% y/y) while prices for non-oil industrial supplies fell 0.8% (+3.7% y/y), down for the third straight month. Prices for non-auto consumer goods fell 0.4% (+2.6% y/y) reflecting a sharp 1.1% decline (+1.7% y/y) in household goods. Furniture prices slipped 0.1% (+5.8% y/y) and home entertainment equipment prices rose 0.3% (-5.1% y/y). The increase reflected higher TV costs but they're still off 5.2% y/y. Imported auto prices increased 0.5% (3.9% y/y) and imported capital goods prices gained 0.4% (1.6% y/y). Computer & peripherals prices rose 0.5% (-2.5% y/y) while excluding computers, capital goods prices increased 0.3% (3.4% y/y).
U.S. export prices gained 0.2% (2.5% y/y) as agricultural prices rose 1.1% (-1.0% y/y) and non-agricultural goods prices were unchanged (+3.0% y/y). Prices of industrial supplies fell 0.3% and were up a lessened 3.7% y/y. Capital goods prices rose 0.4% (1.0% y/y) after being unchanged for three months. Nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.4% (+3.5% y/y) and prices for exported autos & parts rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Imports - All Commodities | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 6.9 | -11.5 |
Petroleum | 1.2 | -0.5 | 3.4 | 23.7 | 36.4 | 28.4 | -35.9 |
Nonpetroleum | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | -4.1 |
Exports - All Commodities | 0.2 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 8.1 | 4.9 | -4.6 |
Agricultural | 1.1 | -2.4 | 1.7 | -1.0 | 22.3 | 7.9 | -12.8 |
Nonagricultural | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 4.6 | -3.7 |