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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 2, 2012
The downtrend in jobless insurance claims remains intact. That was indicated by another decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance. Last week they fell to 367,000 from 379,000 (revised from 377,000). Claims averaged 376,000 (-12.6% y/y) during the last four weeks, down from 430,000 during January, 2010 and were the lowest since June, 2008. Expectations had been for 370,000 claims in the Action Economics survey.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 3.437M during the week of January 21. Claims also were their lowest since 2008. The insured rate of unemployment rate slipped to 2.7%, the recovery low. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the January 14th week, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients fell to 7.670 mil. (-17.5% y/y).
By state, the insured unemployment rate varied as of January 14 with Virginia (1.7%), Texas (1.8%), Florida (1.9%), Arizona (2.3%), Tennessee (2.5%), Indiana (2.7% and Ohio (2.8%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were rates in North Carolina (3.4%), New York (3.6%), Connecticut (3.7%), California (4.0%), Michigan (4.0%), New Jersey (4.3%), and Pennsylvania (5.0%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus estimates are in AS1REPNA.
Unemployment Insurance(000s) | 01/28/12 | 01/21/12 | 01/14/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 367 | 379 | 355 | -13.4 | 409 | 459 | 574 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 3,437 | 3,567 | -13.5 | 3,745 | 4,544 | 5,807 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.2 (1/11) |
3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 7.670M | -17.5 | 2.750M | 9.850M | 9.163M |