Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller January 24, 2012
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond reported that its Composite Index of Manufacturing Sector Activity improved during January to 12 from 3 in December. The latest was the highest level since March but compared unfavorably to the levels of Q1'11 and Q4'10. The latest m/m gain was led by greatly improved shipments & new orders, as well as higher employment. The index of prices paid also rose moderately but remained down sharply from last year's May high.
Service sector activity did not show the same bounce as did manufacturing. The index of revenues slipped m/m to 18 but remained well up from the negative values of last year. The index for the number of employees, however, advanced to its highest since May. Within the service sector, the retail index of revenues made up a December decline and advanced to its highest level in twelve months. The number of employees index rose moderately but was still well off its 2011 highs. In the nonretail sector, the index fell m/m to 17 but remained well above the negative values of this past October. The employees index also slipped but was up sharply from the summer's negative values. Pricing power in services diminished m/m but still was near its strongest since 2006.
These seasonally-adjusted Richmond Fed figures cover activity in the Mid-Atlantic States of Maryland, North and South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Richmond Federal Reserve | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing-Sector Survey (Composite Index) | 12 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 11 | -11 |
Shipments | 17 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 3 | 12 | -10 |
Number of Employees | 4 | -4 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | -16 |
Prices Paid (Annualized by Respondents, %) | 2.53 | 1.55 | 3.42 | 2.94 | 3.85 | 1.95 | 0.95 |
Service-Sector Survey (% Increasing Revenues) | 18 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 1 | -19 |
Retail Subsector | 23 | 4 | 23 | 46 | -0 | -1 | -16 |
Non-Retail | 17 | 24 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 2 | -20 |