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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca January 18, 2012
The OECD leading indicators have not thrown in the towel on Japan’s growth. But Japan’s trends continue to
haunt the outlook.
IP for mining and MFG fell by 2.7% in November. MFG output alone fell by 2.7% in November. The chart on sequential growth rates show that on no tenor is Japan’s IP doing better. In the current quarter with two month’s data in IP is declining at a 5.7% annual rate. The transport sector is trying hard to lift that result as it is up at a 24% annual rate in this quarter as it continues to recover from Japan’s disasters of this past year. Still, weakness is dominating the outlook.
Still over the simple recent three month period all main MFG sectors are showing that output is falling sharply. Only mining and electricity and gas output are rising over three months. Overall MFG output is down by 4.2% over 12-months transportation is up by 2.5% over that period underlining the improvement that the transportation sector has been able to achieve. Still the sector-wide MFG drop tells us that revived transportation output has not been enough to restore growth to overall output. And Japan has few tricks left up its sleeve with a slowing global economy and a still-strong exchange rate.
Also MFG output is still some 11% short of its past cycle peak. It is not just recovery from its disasters of the past year but much more work that lies ahead of a real Japanese recovery.
Consumer goods and investment goods output continue to show accelerating declines in the three months ended in November. Japan still seems like a place where things are destined to get worse before they get better.
Japan Industrial Production Trends | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M/M % | SAAR % | Yr/Yr | Q-2-D | % of | |||||
Seas Adj | Nov 11 |
Oct 11 |
Sep-11 | 3M | 6M | 12M | Yr Ago |
% AR | Cycle Peak |
Mining & MFG | -2.7% | 2.2% | -3.3% | -14.5% | 1.8% | -4.2% | 6.6% | -5.7% | 89.9% |
Total Industry | -2.6% | 2.0% | -3.0% | -13.8% | 1.3% | -4.2% | 6.4% | -5.4% | 89.9% |
MFG | -2.7% | 2.1% | -3.2% | -14.5% | 1.6% | -4.2% | 6.6% | -5.8% | 89.9% |
Textiles | 2.4% | -1.0% | -3.7% | -9.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.1% | -8.4% | 85.2% |
T-port | -10.3% | 12.5% | -6.4% | -20.5% | 74.6% | 2.5% | -0.3% | 24.2% | 84.4% |
Product Group | |||||||||
Consumer Gds | -7.4% | 3.2% | -3.0% | -26.2% | -0.7% | -7.8% | -0.3% | -11.8% | 83.3% |
Intermediate Gds | -1.4% | 1.2% | -2.6% | -10.8% | 4.0% | -5.1% | 7.1% | -3.9% | 88.5% |
Investment Gds | 0.0% | 2.9% | -4.2% | -5.4% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 16.4% | -0.6% | 90.6% |
Mining | -5.6% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 4.2% | -8.3% | 1.4% | -2.7% | 23.9% | 86.0% |
Electric & Gas | -0.6% | -0.1% | 2.0% | 5.2% | -2.9% | -5.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 89.4% |