Recent Updates

  • France: **France Wages and Earnings Rebased to Q2-2017=100**
  • Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, US (Sep)
  • Canada: CPI (Aug), Retail Trade (Jul)
  • Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Aug), Retail Trade by Province (Jul)
  • Norway: International Reserves (Aug), Government Debt (Q2); Finland: Quarterly Sector Accounts, Government Balance (Q2); Denmark: Property Price Indexes (Q2); Iceland: Wage Index (Aug)
  • Turkey: IIP & Intl Reserves (Jul); South Africa: Retail Survey (Q4); Mauritius: PPI (Jun); Lebanon: CPI (Aug)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

OECD LEIs
by Robert Brusca  January 13, 2012

OECD LEIs – The trend-adjusted LEIs are lower nearly across the board in November - the US is the exception as its index rose; Japan’s, hovering above 100, stayed the same. The indicator ratios-to-trend, however, are below 100 (ratio*100) for most coutnries pointing to an ongoing slowdown. So far, the ratio-to-trend values are modest; Italy is the weakest of the lot at 98.5, 1.5 percentage points below its trend.

The OECD data show slippage relative to trend; when the current indicator falls too far below trend it becomes a recession signal. Greece has been below trend for over 20-months, a time period long enough that it has clearly bent its trend lower. Thus the weak numbers for Grcces reflect more dire circumstances than elsewhere where the basic trends genrally have more uplift.

Spain, while slowing, continues to post a ratio that is about 100.

Itlay has slipped below 100 and is below that mark for five months in a row.

As for the laregest EMU members, France is below 100 for four months in a row; Germany for two months in a row.

Europe has slowed and is slowing. The OECD data are up-to-date through November. They have not yet spoken on the impact of the bounce we have seen in some euro-indicators at year-end. But the messagge in the OECD report is quite clear. There is a slowdown in force and it is not yet giving off recession signals. Contraily the US and Japan (Japan with its own legacy of blunted trends...) are getting stronger while the rest are staying about the same.

OECD Trend-Restored Leading Indicators
  Growth:M/M Growth Progression-SAAR
  Nov-11 Oct-11 3Mos 6Mos 12mos Yr-Ago
OECD -0.1% -0.2% -2.7% -4.3% -2.4% 2.4%
OECD7 -0.1% -0.3% -3.3% -5.2% -2.7% 2.1%
OECD.Ezone -0.5% -0.7% -7.8% -9.2% -6.5% 1.4%
OECD.Japan -0.2% -0.2% -3.1% -4.1% -2.2% 2.6%
OECD US 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -2.6% -0.2% 3.2%
Ratios to Trend
  Monthly 6Mo Ago 12Mo Ago
Ratios to Trend Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 May-11 Nov-10
US 100.5 100.4 100.4 100.5 101.0 100.4
UK 99.1 99.4 99.7 100.0 101.0 101.4
Japan 100.4 100.4 100.5 100.5 100.8 100.5
EMU 99.2 99.4 99.6 99.9 101.0 101.6
Germany 99.2 99.5 99.9 100.3 101.5 101.9
France 99.1 99.2 99.5 99.8 101.0 101.8
Italy 98.5 98.7 98.9 99.3 100.5 101.5
Greece 98.7 98.5 98.4 98.3 98.3 98.9
Spain 100.0 100.1 100.2 100.3 100.6 101.1
Slowdowns indicated by RED
close
large image