Recent Updates
- Malaysia: Motor Vehicle Sales (Apr)
- Malaysia: House Price Index by State (Q1)
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller January 12, 2012
Consumers took a
break from raising spending last month. Total retail sales ticked up 0.1%
(6.5% y/y) during December following a revised 0.4% November increase, last
month reported as 0.2%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% rise
according to Action Economics. The gain pulled last year's sales increase to
7.7% after the 6.4% rise during 2010. The December increase owed to a 1.5% jump
in spending on motor vehicles & parts. Less autos, retail sales fell 0.2%
(+6.0% y/y) after a revised 0.3% November gain, last month reported as 0.2%. For
the full-year nonauto sales increased 7.3%. Consensus expectations had been for
a gain of 0.3% in nonauto sales.
Strength in spending last month focused on motor vehicles. Auto sales gained 1.5% (8.8% y/y) compared to a 0.5% m/m slip in unit sales reported earlier this month. Sales of gasoline fell 1.6% (+8.9% y/y) despite a slight m/m gain in prices, when seasonally adjusted by Haver. Sales at food & beverage stores slipped 0.2% (+4.9% y/y) but building materials sales jumped 1.6% (5.8% y/y). Excluding both autos and gasoline, retail sales slipped 0.1% last month (+5.1% y/y) and reversed the November uptick.
Sales of other discretionary items were mixed. Sales of furniture, home furnishings & appliances fell 1.6% (+2.6% y/y) following five months of increase. General merchandise store sales fell 0.8% (+2.7% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline. Conversely, sales at clothing & accessory stores rose 0.7% (6.0% y/y) after a 0.4% November gain. Sales by nonstore retailers fell 0.4% (+10.6% y/y). Finally, eating out was the thing to do during the holidays so restaurant sales rose 0.7% (8.4% y/y).
The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Why Mortgage Refinancing Is Not a Zero-Sum Game from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here
Retail Spending (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 6.4 | -7.0 |
Excluding Autos | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 5.7 | -5.5 |
Retail Sales | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 6.8 | -7.8 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 9.8 | -13.7 |
Retail excluding Autos | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 6.1 | -6.3 |
Gasoline Stations | -1.6 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 8.9 | 17.5 | 16.9 | -22.2 |
Non-Auto Less Gasoline | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 4.5 | -3.3 |
Food Service | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | -0.5 |