Recent Updates

  • US: GDP by Industry (Q1)
  • Canada: Retail Trade (May), CPI (Jun)
  • Thailand: Trade (Jun); China: Loans from Financial Institutions (Jun); Korea: Trade in Goods (Jun); Taiwan: Export Orders (Jun)
  • Turkey: NCI Index (Jul)
  • Turkey: Established & Liquidated (Jun-Press); Morocco: CPI, Public Finance (Jun)
  • Spain: Workers Affected by Layoffs (Apr); Foreign Trade (May)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. GDP Growth Is Revised Lower Again
by Tom Moeller December 22, 2011

Real GDP grew at a revised 1.8% annual rate in Q3 versus the earlier estimate of 2.0% growth. The figure fell short of Consensus expectations for an unrevised 2.0% rate of growth. Nevertheless, growth last quarter remained the strongest since 4Q'10. Continuing to lead growth was business fixed investment.

Accompanying the GDP numbers was the second estimate of corporate profits. They grew at a 6.9% annual rate (7.5% y/y), revised down from 8.5%. The latest was down from 13.7% growth during Q2. Domestic nonfinancial earnings grew at a 6.8% rate (11.6% y/y) which was down from a more than one-third Q2 rise. Financial sector earnings grew at a 9.1% rate (-6.9% y/y) while net earnings from abroad grew at a 4.9% rate (14.0% y/y).

Lesser growth in domestic final demand accounted for the reduced GDP growth figure. It was reduced to 2.7% from 3.0% mostly due to lessened 1.7% (2.0% y/y) rise in personal consumption. Growth in business fixed investment was raised slightly to 15.7% (9.1% y/y) but residential investment growth also was lessened to 1.2% (1.3% y/y). A 0.1 percentage point (-2.4% y/y) downtick in government spending was unrevised.

The 1.4 percentage point subtraction from GDP growth due to a lesser rate of inventory drawdown was little revised. A 0.4 percentage point addition from improved net exports also was little-changed. Exports grew at a 4.7% rate (6.0% y/y) and imports increased at a 1.2% rate (2.1% y/y).

The chain price index was notched up to a 2.6% rate of increase. This rate of growth is double that in 2010. The PCE deflator grew at an unrevised 2.3% rate (2.9% y/y) while business fixed investment prices rose at a heightened 1.8% rate (1.5% y/y). Residential investment prices ticked up at a 0.3% rate (1.6% y/y).

The latest GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA databases; USNA contains basically all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail on the national accounts, including the new integrated economics accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.

Would Active Labor Market Policies Help Combat High U.S. Unemployment? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.

Chained 2005 $, % AR Q3'11 (3rd Est.) Q3'11 (2nd Est.) Q3'11 (Adv) Q2'11 Q1'11 Q3'11
Y/Y
2010 2009 2008
Gross Domestic Product 1.8 2.0 2.5 1.3 0.4 1.5 3.0 -3.5 -0.3
  Inventory Effect -1.4 -1.6 -1.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.8 1.6 -0.8 -0.5
Final Sales 3.2 3.6 3.6 1.6 0.0 2.3 1.4 -2.6 0.2
  Foreign Trade Effect 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.5 -0.4 1.0 1.2
Domestic Final Sales 2.7 3.0 3.2 1.3 0.4 1.8 1.8 -3.6 -1.0
Demand Components
Personal Consumption 1.7 2.3 2.4 0.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 -1.9 -0.6
Business Fixed Investment 15.7 14.8 16.3 10.3 2.1 9.1 4.4 -17.9 -0.8
Residential Investment 1.2 1.6 2.4 4.2 -2.4 1.3 -4.3 -22.2 -23.9
Government Spending -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.9 -5.9 -2.4 0.7 1.7 2.6
Chain-Type Price Index
GDP 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 1.2 1.1 2.2
Final Sales of Domestic Product 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.2 1.0 2.2
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.4 3.9 2.8 1.5 -0.1 3.3
close
large image