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Economy in Brief

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Again
by Tom Moeller November 23, 2011

New orders for durable goods fell 0.7% last month following a revised 1.5% decline during September, initially reported as -0.8%. Another 4.8% decline in transportation orders led the way down for the second consecutive month. Orders for aircraft & parts fell 9.9% (-29.8% y/y), off sharply for the second month. Orders for motor vehicles & parts rose 6.2% (9.4% y/y) after two months of decline.

Outside the transportation sector, orders rose 0.7% (11.7% y/y). That gain was led by a 3.0% (36.8% y/y) rise in primary metals. Machinery orders rose 1.6% (11.5% y/y). Computers & other electronics orders slipped 0.1% (+2.5% y/y) and computer orders alone fell 0.4% (+7.9% y/y) following two months of strong increase. Orders for communications equipment declined 1.6% and were off by 9.1% y/y. The sub-total of orders for nondefense capital goods fell another 4.6% (+1.0% y/y). Outside of aircraft orders fell 1.8% (+9.2% y/y) following two months of 0.9% increase.

Shipments of durable goods rose 1.3% (9.2% y/y) last month. Less the transportation sector shipments edged up 0.2% (9.7% y/y). Inventory accumulation picked up a bit with a 0.5% (11.7% y/y) monthly increase. Unfilled orders rose 0.2% (7.1% y/y) led by a 1.5% gain (29.6% y/y) in machinery.

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

Durable Goods NAICS Classification (%) Oct Sep Aug Y/Y 2010 2009 2008
Orders -0.7 -1.5 0.1 7.5 15.4 -27.3 -6.3
 Nondefense Capital Goods -4.6 -4.0 5.4 1.0 28.0 -31.0 -8.4
   Excluding Aircraft -1.8 0.9 0.9 9.2 17.2 -20.4 -1.2
Shipments 1.3 -0.5 0.1 9.2 6.2 -20.4 -2.8
Inventories 0.5 0.0 0.9 11.7 9.9 -9.0 -0.2
Unfilled Orders 0.2 0.6 0.9 7.1 3.9 -15.2 4.3
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