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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index Dips
by Tom Moeller  October 31, 2011

Factory sector activity around Chicago developed less forward momentum this month. The Purchasing Mangers Association of Chicago indicated in its October Business Survey that the Business Barometer Index fell somewhat to 58.4 from 60.4 in September. The figure disappointed Consensus expectations for 59.2. Regardless, with a reading above 50, the figure still indicated positive growth in activity. Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-Adjusted figure based on the Chicago Fed numbers and it also slipped to 59.4 last month from 60.4 in September. The ISM figure will be reported tomorrow.

Weakness in the component series was led by sharp declines in inventories and in new orders. Production fell slightly. Conversely, the speed of vendor deliveries slowed, as indicated by a higher index. The employment series also rose to a positive 62.3 which was the highest level in six months. During the last ten years there has been a 79% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector employment. The prices paid series also rose modestly to 66.0, an indication that prices continue to move higher.

The Chicago PMI figures are diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations data are in the AS1REPNA database.

Household Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.

Chicago Purchasing Managers (SA) Oct Sep Aug Oct'10 2010 2009 2008
ISM Adjusted Index 59.4 60.4 56.0 60.8 59.1 41.6 47.1
Business Barometer Index 58.4 60.4 56.5 60.2 61.3 43.4 46.8
 New Orders 61.3 65.3 56.9 63.2 63.6 45.3 46.8
 Employment 62.3 60.6 52.1 55.2 55.2 34.6 41.4
 Production 63.4 63.9 57.8 67.9 65.1 45.0 48.1
 Supplier Deliveries 55.8 51.9 60.5 63.1 61.0 50.0 52.7
 Inventories 54.4 60.3 52.9 54.7 50.5 33.4 46.6
Prices Paid Index 66.0 62.3 68.6 67.8 65.4 41.4 73.5
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