Recent Updates
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Mar)
- US: New Res Sales (Mar), S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indexes, FHFA HPI (Feb), Final Building Permits (Mar)
- US: Steel Imports (Mar-Prelim)
- US: Richmond Fed Mfg & Service Sector Surveys (Apr)
- US: Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- Belgium: Business Confidence (Apr)
- US: Regional Building Permits (Mar and YTD)
- Ireland: Bank Lending Survey (Q2)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Strengthen
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices rose 0.6% during February...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.80 per gallon last week (14.3% y/y)...
U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Rise Again
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes increased 1.1% during March (-1.2% y/y) to 5.600 million units (AR)...
PMIs Stabilize or Creep Higher After Drop-Off
In the EMU, both the services and manufacturing sectors took a substantial step down one month ago...
by Tom Moeller October 24, 2011
Though it improved m/m, the Chicago Fed's
National Activity Index (CFNAI) for September remained under
pressure. The figure rose to -0.22 from -0.59 in August, which was
weaker than reported last month. The three-month moving average
remained depressed at -0.21 for September, up slightly from -0.28
during August. The figures have been negative for most of this year.
During the last ten years there has been an 83% correlation between
the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The Personal Consumption & Housing component of the index improved sharply m/m to its highest level since early-2010, though it remained negative. The other three index components turned into positive territory but each remained weak. Thirty-nine of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index in September, while 46 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. During August, 41 of the 85 component series made a positive contribution to the overall index while 44 made a negative contribution.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Economic Policy is Friday's speech by Fed Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen and it is available here.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CFNAI | -0.22 | -0.59 | 0.19 | -0.27 | -0.02 | -1.63 | -1.94 |
3-Month Moving Average | -0.21 | -0.28 | -0.20 | -0.15 | -- | -- | -- |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.30 | -0.38 | -0.33 | -0.33 | -0.34 | -0.38 | -0.26 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.04 | -0.12 | 0.13 | -0.04 | 0.03 | -0.81 | -0.67 |
Production & Income | 0.02 | -0.06 | 0.31 | 0.01 | 0.22 | -0.27 | -0.70 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.01 | -0.03 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.07 | -0.16 | -0.31 |