Recent Updates

  • Japan: ** Japan IP forecasts have rebased from 2010=100 to 2015=100. We are currently working on processing the new data.**
  • ** New Zealand Jobs Online has changed its reported frequency from monthly to quarterly and rebased from August 2010=100 to Q4 2010=100. **
  • Australia: PPI, Manufacturing Price, Construction Materials Prices (Mar); New Zealand: Trade by Country by Commodity, International Trade (Mar); ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

Japan’s Tankan rebounds but remains short of its Q1 reading
by Robert Brusca  October 03, 2011

Japan’s Tankan reading has risen from its recession lows and the outlook is up in Q3. While the rebound is the firm for large companies it is progressively more guarded as the size of the enterprise surveyed geos down. But the actual Tankan reading in Q3 at +2 exceeds the Q3 reading of -9 but comes up short on the Q1 level of +6.

The headline Tankan number is the one for large Manufacturing companies. For non-manufacturing there was a similar rebound too and again the Q3 reading fell short of the Q1 reading.

The all-industry outlook (forecast) for large enterprises rose to +3 in Q4 from zero in Q3 and -2 in Q1. For Medium-sized companies it rose to -7 for Q4 up from -13 in Q3 and better than the Q1 outlook of -15. For small companies the Q4 outlook improved to -18 from -24 in Q3 and -27 in Q1.

While there was improvement for companies of all sizes the largest enterprises are leading the outlook for improvement. Even though the current reading for large firms is below its Q1 level, the outlook has improved beyond its Q1 mark, a reading taken before disaster struck Japan.

The evidence is that despite its disasters and despite a subsequent run up in the value of the yen, Japan is continuing to improve. The deflation picture remains somewhat touchy. But the economic side shows that firms are improving and that they expected improvement to continue even in the face of continuing difficulties in Europe, with world growth and in key foreign exchange markets.

Tankan Results Large Enterprises
  Readings Averages %-ile
  Q3-11 Q2-11 Q1-11 Q4-10 1Yr Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG 2.0 -9.0 6.0 5.0 -3.5 -4.6 71.4%
NonMFG 1.0 -5.0 3.0 1.0 -2.0 -1.5 60.4%
Total Industry 1.0 -8.0 5.0 3.0 -3.5 -3.1 67.6%
Construction -11.0 -15.0 -16.0 -22.0 -13.0 -13.8 54.5%
Real Estate 0.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 1.5 9.4 31.2%
Wholesale -2.0 -1.0 5.0 6.0 -1.5 -1.4 61.8%
Retail 14.0 10.0 10.0 -3.0 12.0 -6.6 96.6%
Transportation -2.0 -15.0 -3.0 2.0 -8.5 -3.9 62.9%
Services 4 Biz 3.0 2.0 13.0 9.0 2.5 5.4 49.3%
Personal Serv 3.0 -10.0 1.0 7.0 -3.5 3.5 46.7%
Restaurants & Hotels -18.0 -40.0 -15.0 -11.0 -29.0 -18.7 46.8%
Forecast
  Q4-11 Q3-11 Q2-11 Q1-11 1Yr Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG-OtLk 4.0 2.0 2.0 -2.0 1.5 -2.6 75.3%
NonMFG -Otlk 1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.8 0.1 58.5%
All Industry-Otlk 3.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.3 -1.3 69.8%
Tankan Results Medium Enterprises
  Q3-11 Q2-11 Q1-11 1Yr Avg 1Yr Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG -3.0 -12.0 -4.0 -4.5 -4.5 -19.5 73.0%
NonMFG -8.0 -17.0 -6.0 -10.3 -10.3 -19.1 64.4%
Forecast
  Q4-11 Q3-11 Q2-11 Q1-11 1Yr Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG-OtLk -2.0 -7.0 -8.0 -12.0 -7.3 -21.6 78.7%
NonMFG -Otlk -10.0 -16.0 -12.0 -17.0 -13.8 -21.6 67.3%
All Industry-Otlk -7.0 -13.0 -11.0 -15.0 -11.5 -21.8 72.1%
Tankan Results Small Enterprises
  Q4-11 Q3-11 Q2-11 Q1-11 1-Yr Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG -11.0 -21.0 -10.0 -16.0 -16.0 -28.3 68.7%
NonMFG -19.0 -26.0 -19.0 -22.5 -22.5 -29.0 65.8%
Total Industry -19.0 -26.0 -19.0 -22.5 -22.5 -29.0 67.3%
Forecast
  Q4-11 Q3-11 Q2-11 Q1-11 1-Yr Avg Since Q3'03 Since Q1'04
MFG-OtLk -12.0 -15.0 -16.0 -23.0 -16.5 -30.6 70.8%
NonMFG -Otlk -22.0 -29.0 -27.0 -29.0 -26.8 -34.3 68.2%
All Industry-Otlk -18.0 -24.0 -23.0 -27.0 -23.0 -32.9 70.4%
close
large image