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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Recovers A Bit Further
by Tom Moeller  September 30, 2011

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for all of September rose to 59.4. That's versus its mid-September reading of 57.8 and versus August of 55.7. Regardless, that gain still left the Q3 average down sharply at 59.6 versus the Q2 average of 71.9. Consumers' reading of current economic conditions as well as expectations improved slightly this month. During the last ten years there has been a 62% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with just- over 300 households. Data are in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) Sep Aug Jul Sep
Y/Y
2010 2009 2008
Consumer Sentiment 59.4 55.7 63.7 -12.9% 71.8 66.3 63.8
 Current Economic Conditions 74.9 68.7 75.8 -5.9 80.9 69.6 73.7
 Consumer Expectations 49.4 47.4 56.0 -18.9 66.0 64.1 57.3
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