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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller July 26, 2011
The Conference Board reported that its July Index of Consumer Confidence rose 3.3% to 59.5. The gain recovered roughly half of the June decline which was deeper than reported initially. The latest figure beat Consensus expectations for a reading of 56.0. During the last ten years there has been 45% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
The expectations component of confidence rose 5.3% from June and recovered most of that month's decline. Expectations for improved business conditions and employment in six months made up the June declines but still were near the lowest levels since early last year. Income expectations also recovered. The turn in oil prices and the weak economy probably caused consumers to expect the inflation rate in twelve months to fall to 5.7%, the lowest since February. However, interest rates in twelve months were expected to be higher by 53.0% of respondents while just 12.6% expected rates to fall. A somewhat improved 29.5% of respondents expected stock prices to rise and a lessened 37.0% expected decline. A higher 4.9% planned to buy a home within six months.
The present situations component of the consumer confidence index fell 2.5% to 35.7 for the third consecutive monthly decline. Jobs were seen as hard to get by a higher 44.1% of respondents but remained down from the November high of 48.8%. Business conditions were seen as good by a reduced 13.4% of respondents, double the February 2010 low, while 39.0% saw them as bad.
The Conference Board data can be found in Haver's CBDB database. The expectation figure is the AS1REPNA database.
Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence Index | 59.5 | 57.6 | 61.7 | 16.7 | 54.5 | 45.2 | 57.9 |
Present Situation | 35.7 | 36.6 | 39.3 | 35.2 | 25.7 | 24.0 | 69.9 |
Expectations | 75.4 | 71.6 | 76.7 | 11.7 | 73.7 | 59.3 | 50.0 |