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Economy in Brief
EMU Trade Surplus Expands on Weak Import Rise
In the EMU, both import and export gains were modest in January...
U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Remain Abundant
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate increased to 4.8% during January...
U.S. Industrial Production Edges Higher
Industrial production increased a less-than-expected 0.1% (3.5% y/y) during February...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Retreat Suggests Continued Slow Growth
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions fell to 3.7 this month...
EMU Inflation Trends Are Still Weak
The EMU HICP for February gained 0.1%, the same as in January, after a 0.2% decline in December...
by Tom Moeller July 15, 2011
The inflation picture brightened slightly last month. The overall CPI
declined 0.2%, the first decline in twelve months. The drop compared to
Consensus expectations for a 0.1% slip. On a three-month basis prices rose
at a moderated 1.5% annual rate. However, there was some reason for worry
within the report. The trend in core inflation picked up as prices less
food & energy rose another 0.3% versus an expected 0.2%. On a three-month
basis, the 2.9% gain (AR) was the strongest in three years.
Lower energy prices led the moderation in the overall June CPI with a 4.4% decline. Gasoline prices fell 6.8% (+35.6% y/y). Food & beverage costs rose a moderated 0.2% (3.6% y/y). Prices of meats, poultry & fish fell 0.4% (+7.2% y/y) following four consecutive months of greater than 1.0% rise.
For goods alone, core prices rose 0.5% for the second consecutive month. Strength in apparel prices led the gain with a 1.9% increase (1.9% y/y) after May's 1.0% rise. Vehicle prices rose 1.0% (3.9% y/y), also for the second month. Furniture prices were essentially unchanged but the y/y decline moderated to -0.4% from -3.1% one year ago.
Core service prices ticked up 0.1% (1.6 y/y) last month. Education costs rose 0.3% (3.8% y/y) while medical care service prices rose 0.3% (2.9% y/y) for the third straight month. Public transportation costs fell 2.2% (+5.6% y/y). Shelter costs, which are 32% of the CPI, rose 0.2% for the second month but the y/y change improved to 1.2%. Owners equivalent rent of primary residences, a measure not equivalent to other house price measures, rose a strengthened 0.2% (1.0% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in consumption patterns, slipped 0.1% (+3.4% y/y). Chained prices less food & energy ticked up 0.1% m/m and by 1.4% y/y.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in the CPIDATA database. The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
Macroeconomic Policy and Labor Markets: Lessons From Dale Mortensen's Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 3.8 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| Services less Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 |
| Energy | -4.4 | -1.0 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 9.6 | -18.2 | 13.7 |
| Food & Beverages | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 5.4 |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 3.7 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
