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Economy in Brief

French MFG Settles Lower
by Robert Brusca  June 22, 2011

The overall French industry index rebounded in April to 109 form 106 bouncing back to its May level. As such it is only one point off the March high of 110 (see chart). On the MFG front (see table) the slowing is more demonstrative. The production trend reading at +13 in June is off the March/April high of +21. At that level the index stands in the 76th percentile of its queue of historic values. In other words the index is higher than this only 24% of the time.

The industrial price index is at 40 and at this reading it is strong, standing in the 92nd percentile of its queue; it is only stronger than this about 8% of the time. Price pressure seem to be mounting

The recent production trend is still strong at 25 this month it matches its cycle high. Still, the likely trends reading stands at 14 which is well below the cycle high reading of 27 reached in March. Still the reading of +14 puts the likely trend in the top 28 percentile of this queue.

The orders and demand and foreign orders/demand readings are on the moderate side. The overall orders/demand reading is -4; the reading for foreign orders/demand is +3. Foreign orders/demand stands in the 72nd percentile of its historic queue compared to the 70th percentile for orders overall. These are moderately good readings which imply that orders/demand are better than ‘this’ only about 30% of the time.

Meanwhile, inventory levels are low and the likely price trend reading is so high at +25 the price trend reading is only stronger than this about 2% of the time in the last 277 months; but two of those stronger readings came in the previous three months. Inflation pressures are still strong to French industrialists, a fact that will not be lost on the ECB despite some evidence of cooling trends for the economy and for MFG.

INSEE Manufacturing Survey
    Since Jan 1990 Since Jan 1990
Outlook Jun
11
May
11
Apr
11
Mar
11
%ile Rank Max Min Range Mean
Industrial Prod Trend 13 15 21 21 73.9 53 43 -72 115 -6
Industrial Price Level 40 45 49 50 85.3 17 54 -41 95 7
Production
 Recent Trend 25 19 25 18 82.2 13 41 -49 90 6
 Likely trend 14 9 13 27 78.0 63 27 -32 59 6
Orders/Demand
Orders&Demand -4 -9 -2 -3 63.0 66 33 -67 100 -15
FgnOrders&Demand 3 -3 -4 -6 64.7 62 45 -74 119 -11
Inventories
Levels 2 -1 2 0 24.4 194 33 -8 41 11
Prices
Likely Sales Price Trend 25 27 14 26 96.4 4 27 -28 55 1
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