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Economy in Brief

Euro-Area IP Barely Edges Ahead
by Robert Brusca  June 15, 2011

The chart of the three main EMU sectors tells the basic story of the Zone. Capital goods output is relatively steady at growth rates between 6% and 10%. Intermediate goods output has slowed but has done so erratically. Meanwhile, consumer goods output has picked up in the current month but its trends are all flat. The pick-up in consumer goods durables output is all on the back this month’s output jump.

For that reason, in the quarter-to-date consumer output is doing well as the current month’s observation carries the quarter’s extrapolated gain a long way. Intermediate goods output is up at a 2.2% pace in the new quarter and capital goods are firm but weaker than they have been with an annualized rate of growth of 3.9%.

Among large countries Germany and Italy are seeing output gains in the new quarter with Spain, France, and the UK lower.

The EMU, like the US, is seeing some weaker trends in industrial output developing. For the time being there seems to be a taste to keep a stiff upper lip and to assume that Japan’s cascading disasters are responsible for spreading theses ripples of weakness. But given the widespread slowdown across sectors, this idea may just be a too-pat excuse. For now there is no panic about the slowing. But there are many things beyond Japan that could be responsible. Markets are acting as if they are a bit more worried about growth developments and prospects, as stocks have been hit globally and bond yields have moved lower and stuck there.

Euro-Area MFG IP
SAAR
Except M/M
Mo/Mo Apr
11
Mar
11
Apr
11
Mar
11
Apr
11
Mar
11
 
Euro-Area
Detail
Apr
11
Mar
11
Feb
11
3Mo 3Mo 6Mo 6Mo 12Mo 12Mo Q-2
Date
MFG 0.1% -0.4% 1.3% 3.8% 6.2% 7.8% 10.1% 6.1% 6.6% 1.4%
Consumer 0.7% 0.0% 0.9% 6.6% 3.6% 4.3% 3.8% 3.3% 0.8% 6.1%
C-Durables 1.3% 0.0% 0.6% 8.0% 8.4% 5.9% 5.4% 5.0% 2.5%  
C-Non-durables 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 6.7% 6.5% 3.6% 4.7% 3.0% 0.5%  
Intermediate 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 3.1% 13.9% 8.4% 9.1% 5.6% 7.6% 2.2%
Capital 0.5% -0.9% 2.3% 7.7% -2.8% 5.8% 10.2% 9.8% 11.2% 3.9%
Main Euro-Area Countries and UK IP in MFG
  Mo/Mo Apr
11
Mar
11
Apr
11
Mar
11
Apr
11
Mar
11
 
MFG Only Apr
11
Mar
11
Feb
11
3Mo 3Mo 6Mo 6Mo 12Mo 12Mo Q:2
Date
Germany: -0.6% 1.1% 1.8% 9.4% 13.4% 6.3% 13.6% 10.7% 12.5% 4.2%
France:IPx
Construct'n
-0.3% -1.1% 0.4% -3.8% 0.9% 5.3% 4.9% 2.6% 3.2% -5.2%
Italy 1.0% 0.7% 1.5% 13.3% 2.7% 6.2% 3.9% 4.1% 4.0% 12.2%
Spain -3.6% 0.2% -1.2% -17.0% 11.0% -1.9% 6.4% -2.1% 0.8% -21.1%
UK:EU
member
-1.5% 0.1% -0.1% -5.9% 3.1% -1.1% 3.3% 1.3% 2.2% -8.6%
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