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Economy in Brief

ADP Reports Moderate Job Growth
by Tom Moeller  May 4, 2011

In its latest National Employment Report, the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers, indicated that the April level of private nonfarm payrolls rose 179,000 after a 207,000 March increase, revised from 201,000. The latest gain fell short of Action Economics expectations for a 195,000 increase.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report April payroll employment on Friday. Economists expect a 185,000 worker increase in jobs. For comparison, the March increase of 207,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 230,000 rise in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

A 138,000 gain in service-producing payrolls led the increase in April jobs in the ADP report. Goods-producing payrolls rose for the sixth consecutive month. The 41,000 increase outpaced the rise in factory sector jobs. Overall, small-sized payrolls grew 84,000 m/m (1.5% y/y) while medium-sized payrolls also rose 84,000 (1.7% y/y). Large payrolls were up 11,000 (0.2% y/y). Construction employment rose 14,000 and the number of financial activities jobs inched up 2,000.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here. The expectations figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP National Employment Report Apr Mar Feb Y/Y 2010 2009 2008
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) 179 207 205 1.4% -1.1% -4.8% -0.6%
  Small Payroll (1-49) 84 100 96 1.5 -0.8 -3.9 0.0
  Medium Payroll (50-499) 84 85 100 1.7 -1.0 -5.6 -0.9
  Large Payroll (>500) 11 22 9 0.2 -2.0 -5.6 -1.9
Goods Producing 41 38 20 0.6 -5.1 -12.3 -3.6
  Manufacturing 25 35 18 1.4 -3.3 -11.3 -3.2
Service Producing 138 169 185 1.5 -0.2 -3.1 0.1
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