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Economy in Brief

U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline
by Tom Moeller  April 14, 2011

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that overall mortgage applications fell 6.7% last week to the lowest level since mid-February. Applications to refinance fell 7.7% w/w and were off roughly one-half from the peak last August. Applications to purchase a home fell 4.7% but remained improved from the January low. During the last ten years, there has been a 42% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales. The correlation has lessened recently from 61% before 2008.

Applications for fixed interest rate mortgage financing fell 6.5% last week (-8.0% y/y). Applications for variable-rate financing fell 9.6% (-13.5% y/y) and they were off roughly two-thirds from the September peak.

The effective fixed interest rate on conventional 15-year mortgages inched up to 4.48% last week. For 30-year mortgages the rate rose to 5.17%. Interest rates on fixed 15-year and 30-year mortgages are closely correlated (near-90%) with the rate on 10-year Treasury securities.

The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. The figures for weekly mortgage applications are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

BA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100) 4/8/11 4/1/11 3/25/11 Y/Y % 2010 2009 2008
Total Market Index 444.0 475.7 485.3 -8.4 659.3 736.4 642.9
 Purchase 191.7 201.2 188.5 -12.1 199.8 263.5 345.4
 Refinancing 1,923.9 2,084.1 2,222.5 -6.0 3,348.1 3,509.2 2,394.1
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) 4.48 4.42 4.41 4.63
(4/10)
4.39 4.85 5.88
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