Recent Updates
- US: Housing Vacancies & Homeownership (Q1), FHFA Home Mortgage Terms, Advance Durable Goods, Advance Trade & Inventories (Mar)
- Canada: Payroll, Employment, Earnings & Hours (Feb)
- Spain: Mortgage Market, Labor Force Survey (Q1) State Public Finance (Mar), Social Security Funds, Consolidated, Central Government Public Finances (Feb), Tax Receipts (Q1, Mar)
- South Africa: Tourism & Migration, Export & Import Price Indexes (Feb), PPI (Mar); Kenya: GDP (2017)
- UK: RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) Mortgage and Consumer
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Hits Record High
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity surged to a record 26...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 209,000 (-17.1% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Are Little Changed; Rates Remain High
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index eased 0.2% last week (-1.9% y/y)...
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128.7 in April from 127.0 (initially reported as 127.7) in March...
by Tom Moeller April 13, 2011
Total retail & food service sales rose by 0.4% last month following a 1.1% February increase, revised up from 1.0%. Sales have risen for nine consecutive months and the latest increase left the y/y gain firm at 7.1%. The March rise roughly matched Consensus expectations for a 0.5% gain, according to the Action Economics survey. Lately, forward momentum in sales has picked up. During the last three months, sales rose at a 9.4% annual rate versus a 6.5% increase during all of last year. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.8% last month after an upwardly revised 1.1% February gain. The increase roughly matched expectations for a 0.7% rise. During the last three months, nonauto sales rose at a 12.0% annual rate after a 5.7% increase last year.
Strength in retail purchases occurred despite the lackluster performance of auto sales. Motor vehicle sales fell 1.7% last month and reversed a 1.0% February increase, revised down from 2.3%. The decline is consistent with the 2.4% drop in unit motor vehicle sales reported earlier this month. In addition, higher prices pulled sales of gasoline service stations up another 2.6% after a 2.4% February gain, double the advance estimate. Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales rose 0.5% in March and at a 6.6% annual rate during the last three months.
Discretionary spending firmed further. Sales of furniture, home furnishings and appliances jumped 2.8% and at a 19.0% annual rate during the last three months. March sales at furniture stores surged 3.6% while sales at electronics & appliance stores increased 2.1%. March clothing store sales rose 0.6% and at a 14.5% rate during the last three months. Finally, sales at general merchandise outlets increased 0.4% and at a 7.1% annual rate since December. Building material store sales rose 2.2% after two months of poor sales related to severe winter weather. Also consumers' appetite for eating out returned as sales at food service & drinking places rose 1.0% and at a 13.7% over the last three months. Store shopping precluded catalogue sales which slipped 0.3% (+12.4% y/y) and reversed a slim 0.3% February increase. Currently, sales by electronic shopping & mail-order houses account for roughly ten percent of nonauto retail sales less building materials & gasoline.
The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 7.1 | 6.5 | -6.4 | -1.0 |
Excluding Autos | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6.5 | 5.7 | -5.1 | 2.3 |
Retail Sales | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 7.3 | 6.9 | -7.1 | -1.4 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 10.0 | 10.3 | -12.1 | -13.9 |
Retail excluding Autos | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 6.1 | -5.9 | 2.3 |
Gasoline | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 16.7 | 16.2 | -24.7 | 9.9 |
Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | -2.4 | 1.0 |
Food Service | 1.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 2.4 |