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Economy in Brief

ADP Reports Another Firm Job Increase
by Tom Moeller  March 30, 2011

In its latest National Employment Report, the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers, indicated that the March level of private nonfarm payrolls rose another 201,000 after a 208,000 February increase, last month reported as 217,000. The latest gain matched Consensus expectations for a 200,000 increase.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report March payroll employment on Friday. Economists expect a 185,000 worker increase in jobs. For comparison, the February increase of 208,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 222,000 rise in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

Another firm gain in private service-producing payrolls of 164,000 led the gain in March payrolls in the ADP report. Goods-producing payrolls rose for the fifth consecutive month. The 37,000 increase matched the rise in factory sector jobs. Overall, small-sized payrolls grew 102,000 m/m (1.4% y/y) while medium-sized payrolls rose 82,000 (1.6% y/y). Large payrolls were up 17,000 (0.2% y/y). Construction employment slipped by 5,000 and the number of financial activities jobs rose 4,000.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here.

ADP National Employment Report Mar Feb Jan Y/Y 2010 2009 2008
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) 201 208 190 1.3% -1.1% -4.8% -0.6%
Small Payroll (1-49) 102 96 102 1.4 -0.8 -3.9 0.0
Medium Payroll (50-499) 82 101 82 1.6 -1.0 -5.6 -0.9
Large Payroll (>500) 17 11 6 0.2 -2.0 -5.6 -1.9
Goods Producing 37 21 30 0.4 -5.1 -12.3 -3.6
  Manufacturing 37 20 26 1.5 -3.3 -11.3 -3.2
Service Producing 164 187 160 1.5 -0.2 -3.1 0.1
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