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Economy in Brief

U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continues Double-Dip
by Tom Moeller  January 25, 2011

First home prices fell through early-2009. Then they rose modestly until this past June with the help of the government tax credit. But during the last five months, they resumed their decline. During November, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.5% following two monthly declines of 1.0% each. No change in prices was the Consensus expectation. It was the fifth consecutive month of decline and the index level was down 1.6% from last November. The narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index of prices declined 0.4% during November, also down for the fifth month.

The performance of home prices continued to vary around the country. During November, the 12-month change in prices remained the strongest in the West. In San Diego prices rose 2.6% y/y, in Los Angeles prices rose 2.1%, and in San Francisco by 0.4%. These gains follow earlier sharp declines. Also, prices rose 3.5% in Washington D.C. following double-digit declines during 2008 and 2009. Elsewhere, prices remained depressed. Prices fell 7.9% y/y in Atlanta, 7.6% in Chicago, 7.1% in Detroit, 7.0% in Portland and by 4.2% in Charlotte. Lesser declines were logged in Denver (-2.6%) and New York (-1.7%). In San Francisco (+0.4%) and Los Angeles (+2.1%) prices rose.

During the last four years, home prices have fallen 29.9% overall led by declines of 57.0% in Las Vegas, 53.3% in Phoenix, 42.5% in Tampa and 35.3% in San Francisco. Prices fell a lesser 23.7% in Washington, D.C., 20.8% in New York, 11.5% in Boston, 9.3% in Denver and 7.4% in Dallas.

The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA)
  Nov. Oct. Sept. Nov. Y/Y 2009 2008 2007
20 City Composite Index -0.5 -1.0% -1.0% -1.6% -13.3% -15.7% -3.8%
 Regional Indicators
  Atlanta  -1.7 -2.0 -2.3 -7.9 -11.6 -8.5 0.7
  Boston -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -0.8 -4.9 -5.7 -4.0
  Chicago -1.6 -2.0 -1.8 -7.6 -14.2 -10.0 -1.0
  Charlotte 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -4.2 -8.2 -1.9 5.7
  Dallas -0.3 -0.6 -1.0 -4.3 -2.3 -3.3 0.5
  Denver -0.4 0.2 -0.6 -2.6 -2.8 -4.9 -1.7
  Los Angeles -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 2.1 -15.4 -24.2 -5.2
  Miami -0.6 -1.2 -1.1 -3.6 -22.0 -26.6 -5.9
  Minneapolis -1.4 -1.7 -2.6 -4.5 -15.7 -14.3 -3.7
  New York -0.6 -1.6 -0.4 -1.7 -9.8 -7.4 -2.8
  San Francisco -0.7 -1.3 -0.8 0.4 -18.4 -24.3 -4.5
  Tampa -0.7 -0.4 -1.2 -4.0 -18.8 -19.2 -7.6
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