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Economy in Brief

Japan LEI Gains Some Traction
by Robert Brusca   January 11, 2011

Japan's LEI has been gaining some traction. It shows a more complete recovery in gear than does the OECD LEI which has not rebounded as much in the last year or so as the Japanese national gauge. Japan's own LEI gauge shows a recent sharp surge higher. Its 3-month growth rate has accelerated beyond its pace for six-months but still expands at a pace below its 12-month rate of growth

The components of the OECD LEI show that the movement in the loan to deposit ratio is still a negative in Japan as is the barometer for overtime hours in MFG. But the construction sector, the trade sector, the interest rate spread (yield curve), and stock index are all moving higher. Inventories are a positive in the outlook. In short while. Japan still has a lot of challenges including a huge debt load and political uncertainty number of indicators are turning positive.

Japan has even done its part to try and calm the European debt situation by promising to buy European securities. This pledge along with China's earlier steps have helped to restore some balance in a European trading day that was starting to get a bit ugly. It's a key week for the European markets with key bond offerings on tap and Japan has some done something to try and make it a successful one. On top of that it has posted some improved economic readings.

Japan's LEI and its trends
  Levels Growth (SAAR)
  Nov-10 Oct-10 Sep-10 3Mo 6Mo 12Mo 24MO
LEI 101.0 97.7 99.1 4.9% 2.8% 11.2% 24.7%
LEI: OECD 93.6 93.4 93.4 1.0% 0.0% 1.9% 2.1%
OECD LEI details
Share Prices 99.8 99.7 99.6 0.8% 0.0% 0.6% 1.8%
Int Spread (chngs) 100.1 100.0 100.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7
Loan/Deposit 99.2 99.3 99.4 -1.0% -0.8% -1.2% -1.6%
Dwellings Started 100.8 100.6 100.3 2.7% 2.4% 2.1% 0.2%
OT-MFG 100.8 100.9 101.0 -0.6% 0.2% 2.4% 1.2%
Stocks/Deliv (M&M) 98.9 98.9 98.9 0.5% 0.5% -1.8% -2.6%
Exp>Imp 100.4 100.2 100.0 2.1% 2.3% 0.1% -0.8%
Grey shaded rows are one month behind current
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