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Economy in Brief

U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Falls For Third Month
by Tom Moeller   November 30, 2010

What strength in home prices there might have been evaporated this summer. During September, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.8% after a 0.5% August drop that was deeper than reported initially. It was the third consecutive month of decline and the index level was roughly unchanged versus last November. A 12-month rise of 0.5% compares to Consensus expectations for a 1.0% gain. For 3Q as a whole prices fell at a 2.3% annual rate from 2Q after four consecutive quarters of increase. The narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index of prices declined 0.7% during September, down for the third month. The y/y gain of 1.5% was down from its 5.5% peak.

The performance of home prices continued to vary around the country. During September, the 12-month gain in prices remained the strongest in the West. In San Francisco prices rose 5.4% y/y, in San Diego by 4.9% and in Los Angeles by 4.3%. These gains follow earlier sharp declines.  Elsewhere there was moderate strength. Prices rose 4.4% in Washington D.C. following sharp declines from 2007 to 2009. Prices fell 1.3% in Minneapolis and 2.0% in Phoenix where prices are down more than one-half from the 2006 peak. In Tampa (-4.4%), Charlotte (-3.7%) and Las Vegas (-3.5%) prices remained severely depressed. In Tampa they're off  43.8% from the 2006 peak.

The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.

Mortgage Borrowers Deleverage from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland can be found here.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA)
Sep Aug Jul Sep Y/Y 2009 2008 2007
20 City Composite Index -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 0.5% -13.3% -15.7% -3.8%
 Regional Indicators
  Atlanta -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -3.1 -11.6 -8.5 0.7
  Boston -1.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 -4.9 -5.7 -4.0
  Chicago -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 -5.6 -14.2 -10.0 -1.0
  Charlotte -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -3.7 -8.2 -1.9 5.7
  Dallas -1.1 -1.3 -0.8 -2.6 -2.3 -3.3 0.5
  Denver -0.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.7 -2.8 -4.9 -1.7
  Los Angeles -0.4 -0.9 -0.5 4.3 -15.4 -24.2 -5.2
  Miami -1.2 -0.8 -0.2 -2.8 -22.0 -26.6 -5.9
  Minneapolis -2.2 -1.2 -1.9 -1.3 -15.7 -14.3 -3.7
  New York -0.4 -0.3 0.9 -0.2 -9.8 -7.4 -2.8
  San Francisco -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 5.4 -18.4 -24.3 -4.5
  Tampa -1.3 -0.5 -1.5 -4.4 -18.8 -19.2 -7.6
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