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Economy in Brief

U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Declines
by Tom Moeller   October 26, 2010

Home price gains lost forward momentum this summer. During August, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.3%. It was the second month of decline and pulled the y/y gain down to 1.7% from 4.7% this past May. Consensus expectations had been for a 2.2% y/y rise. For the narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index, August prices declined 0.2% which pulled the y/y gain to 2.5% from its peak of 5.5%. Not seasonally adjusted August prices fell 0.2%, the first decline following four months of increase.

The performance of home prices continued to vary around the country. During August, the 12-month gain in prices remained the strongest in the West. In San Francisco prices rose 7.7% y/y, in San Diego by 6.9% and in Los Angeles by 5.3%. Elsewhere there was moderate strength. Prices rose 4.8% in Washington D.C., 2.8% in Minneapolis, 1.5% in Boston and 0.4% in Phoenix. In Dallas (-1.7%), Denver (-1.2%),  and Cleveland (-0.5%) prices fell from last year. In Las Vegas (-4.4%), Tampa (-4.2%) and Charlotte (-3.4%) prices remained severely depressed.

The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA) August July June Aug. Y/Y 2009 2008 2007
20 City Composite Index -0.3 -0.2 0.2% 1.7% -13.3% -15.7% -3.8%
 Regional Indicators
  Atlanta -0.7 -1.0 0.6 -2.0 -11.6 -8.5 0.7
  Boston -0.1 0.0 -0.1 1.5 -4.9 -5.7 -4.0
  Chicago -0.4 -0.1 1.2 -3.1 -14.2 -10.0 -1.0
  Charlotte -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -3.4 -8.2 -1.9 5.7
  Dallas -1.1 -0.7 -0.4 -1.7 -2.3 -3.3 0.5
  Denver -1.1 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -2.8 -4.9 -1.7
  Los Angeles -0.9 -0.4 -0.2 5.3 -15.4 -24.2 -5.2
  Miami -0.7 -0.2 0.2 -1.0 -22.0 -26.6 -5.9
  Minneapolis -0.7 -1.8 1.0 2.8 -15.7 -14.3 -3.7
  New York 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.0 -9.8 -7.4 -2.8
  San Francisco -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 7.7 -18.4 -24.3 -4.5
  Tampa -0.4 -1.4 -0.3 -4.2 -18.8 -19.2 -7.6
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