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Economy in Brief

U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Eases
by Tom Moeller   September 28, 2010

Following the expiration of the government's home buyer tax credit, home prices have lost forward momentum. During July, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index slipped 0.1% (+3.2% y/y) following a diminished 0.2% June increase. Consensus expectations had been for a 3.1% y/y rise. For the narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index, July prices were unchanged from June (4.0% y/y) following moderate gains during the prior three months.

The performance of home prices continued to vary around the country. During June, the 12-month gain in prices remained the strongest in the West. In San Francisco prices rose 11.2% y/y, in San Diego by 9.3% and in Los Angeles by 7.5%. Elsewhere there was strength in Washington D.C. where prices rose 6.5%, 6.4% in Minneapolis, 3.4% in Phoenix and 2.8% in Boston. In Denver (-0.1%), Dallas (-0.4%) and Cleveland (-0.6%) price gains have decelerated sharply from last year. Steeper, though lessening, declines in prices occurred in Tampa (-3.2%), Charlotte (-3.5%) and Las Vegas (-4.8%).

The Case-Shiller home price series are value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA) July M/M June M/M May M/M July Y/Y 2009 2008 2007
20 City Composite Index -0.1 0.2% 0.5% 3.2% -13.3% -15.7% -3.8%
  Regional Indicators
  Atlanta -0.8 0.6 0.9 -0.2 -11.6 -8.5 0.7
  Boston 0.0 -0.1 0.3 2.8 -4.9 -5.7 -4.0
  Chicago 0.1 1.1 0.4 -1.7 -14.2 -10.0 -1.0
  Charlotte -0.5 -0.2 -0.8 -3.5 -8.2 -1.9 5.7
  Dallas -0.6 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -2.3 -3.3 0.5
  Denver -0.8 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 -2.8 -4.9 -1.7
  Los Angeles -0.6 -0.0 0.7 7.5 -15.4 -24.2 -5.2
  Miami -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 -22.0 -26.6 -5.9
  Minneapolis -1.2 0.9 1.2 6.4 -15.7 -14.3 -3.7
  New York 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 -9.8 -7.4 -2.8
  San Francisco -0.5 -0.4 0.5 11.2 -18.4 -24.3 -4.5
  Tampa -1.4 -0.3 0.2 -3.2 -18.8 -19.2 -7.6
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