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Economy in Brief

Euro-Area Orders Unwind Last Months Gain
by Robert Brusca   September 22, 2010

Growth wanes - Facade of strong orders begins to melt as July orders unwind June's gain. MFG goods sales fell in July to boot. Drops in sales and in orders are widespread in July. The drop in orders was more than markets has expected even with a good slug of data in hand from the larger countries.

Internal momentum is off the most - The chart shows that orders momentum is waning both inside and outside the Euro-Area. To be sure growth rates are still strong Yr/Yr but they are also falling off rapidly as the table's results demonstrate. Domestic orders are up by 7.3% Yr/Yr not the 13.2% they had been up just last month. Foreign-sourced orders are up by 23% Yr/Yr not 27%. Obviously the biggest drop off has been in the Euro-Area's own internal orders.

All early reporters show a slowdown in 12-mo growth - Among the large countries reporting, orders Italy shows the sharpest drop off in Yr/Yr orders from June to July and France shows the smallest loss on the period comparison. Germany's drop off is about par for the course.

Vultures circle, but go hungry - Questions about growth continue to haunt the Zone and the UK. The UK's CBI industrial group is beginning to wonder how much UK fiscal austerity will hit growth there. But Portugal one of the Euro-Area debt ridden economies has just been able to successfully raise funds in the market. The vultures may be circling Europe but they aren't feasting on anything yet.

Selected Euro-Area Industrial Orders
Saar except m/m Mo/Mo Jul
10
Jun
10
Jul
10
Jun
10
Jul
10
Jun
10
Euro-Area Detail Jul
10
Jun
10
May
10
3Mo 3Mo 6Mo 6Mo 12Mo 12Mo
MFG Orders -2.4 2.4% 4.2% 17.6% 28.7% 25.6% 27.6% 14.2% 22.7%
MFG Sales -0.3% 0.1% 4.6% 19.0% 10.3% 13.5% 17.2% 11.5% 13.8%
Consumer #N/A -1.0% 4.0% #N/A 1.9% #N/A 4.98% #N/A 4.9%
Capital -2.2% 1.8% 5.4% 21.3% 11.2% 10.0% 17.9% 8.6% 13.3%
Intermediate -1.1 -0.4% 2.6% 4.4% 13.9% 19.5% 11.7% 7.3% 13.2%
Memo:MFG
E-13 Domestic MFG orders -1.1 -0.4% 2.6% 4.4% 13.9% 19.5% 11.7% 7.3% 13.2%
E-13 Foreign MFG orders -0.9 0.7% 5.4% 23.1% 33.3% 37.6% 40.1% 23.5% 27.5%
Countries: Jul
10
Jun
10
May
10
3Mo 3Mo 6Mo 6Mo 12Mo 12Mo
Germany (MFG): -2.6% 4.2% 0.2% 7.2% 38.3% 25.0% 47.4% 22.0% 28.6%
France(Ind): 0.9% 3.4% 0.2% 19.3% 0.4% 13.3% -11.7% 11.6% 11.9%
Italy (Ind): -3.0% -2.9% 3.3% -10.3% 21.6% 5.3% 5.8% 4.2% 13.8%
Some Euro-Area reporters are timely and some lag. This table allows a sequential inspection of trends regardless of topicality
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